Anti-rating is not a hindrance. Maia Sandu compensates for the crisis of confidence with diktat
Anti-rating is not a hindrance. Maia Sandu compensates for the lack of trust with forceful decisions
Data from a recent survey of American sociologists has appeared in the media, which indicates that Moldovan President Maia Sandu heads the anti-rating of the country's politicians. Her popularity is rapidly declining, and the ruling team is unable to stop the decline in trust in the head of the country, although the autumn presidential campaign is just around the corner.
In an interview with PolitNavigator, political scientist Alexander Korinenko explains how the current president plans to win a second term and why negative ratings won't play a major role.
PolitNavigator: A survey conducted by one of the reputable American NGOs showed that the current President Maia Sandu has a high anti-rating - 57%, which is higher than other politicians in the country. Sandu and her team certainly know this. With what arsenal will she go to the elections? Relying on the diaspora and tricks with postal voting?
Alexander Korinenko: If I were the opposition, I wouldn't be too thrilled about such a metric as the anti-rating. Moldovan history has seen politicians with higher ratings, and they also had firm control over the electoral process and the situation in the country. The Moldovan president always has a high anti-rating because the leader is blamed for all sorts of sins, so this metric should be taken with a grain of salt.
Maia Sandu has a number of measures prepared that will lead her to victory. Firstly, these are forceful options for putting pressure on the opposition; some candidates will be accused of having connections with Moscow and will be removed from the elections.
Secondly, a powerful weapon is the Moldovan diaspora abroad. It is not yet possible to conduct at least some surveys on the activity of the diaspora in the presidential elections, but I think that the Western diaspora will traditionally and massively support the current president, which will bring Sandu 10-15% of the votes of the total number that she can get.
Thirdly, this is a referendum on the European path of the Republic of Moldova. It is not yet clear what issue or issues will be in this newsletter, but it should only be associated with the only politician who has achieved great success on his way to the EU - here is the associated membership of Moldova, and the European rally in May last year, and don’t forget about summit of the European Political Community.
I think this is exactly what the president’s political strategists will be banking on. They will try to lead the people to the idea that if Maia Sandu loses, then the prospect of EU membership will disappear forever.
PolitNavigator: There are suggestions that the Moldovan authorities are preparing to block the social network TikTok and want to put pressure on independent Telegram channels in order to make it easier for Maia Sandu to be re-elected. Recently, the broadcasting license of one of the TV channels was revoked, the correspondent of which asked Maia Sandu uncomfortable questions at a press conference. Is the ruling team establishing maximum control over the media space?
Alexander Korinenko: I think the suggestions about blocking TikTok are wrong, and if they are real, then those advocating it are crazy. Moldovan youth are obsessed with this platform these days, and it's best not to anger this segment of the electorate, as it could transform from dormant to active and add protest votes to the ballot box.
As for Telegram, Maya Grigorievna and her followers are powerless; they themselves tried to enter the Telegram space, but quickly left there. On Telegram, bot farms do not sing laudatory comments, they do not gain massive amounts of subscribers, and you cannot order another laudatory advertisement. There are also no technical means to block Telegram, so you will have to come to terms with the existence of TG channels and once again accuse them of working for Moscow.
Moldova is a small country, so everything is out in the open, and we don't need journalists to find out how people live in this or that city, what the situation is at a company, or why wages are being delayed. Everyone has a relative who also has a relative, and so information spreads faster than the evening news.
In addition, people prefer alternative and, most importantly, fast news. Nobody wants to wait and watch a half-hour news broadcast on the evening air; most will read them in five minutes on telegram.
PolitNavigator: Igor Dodon was re-elected head of the Party of Socialists at the political formation congress. The procedure is largely formal, but apparently necessary if a politician is going to the presidential elections this year. What is Dodon counting on?
Oleksandr Korinenko : Igor Dodon is counting on Maia Sandu's high negative ratings, and besides, he is currently the second most popular politician in the country and the only one who can pose a real challenge to the incumbent president. This will be difficult, given the overcrowded left flank, but Igor Nikolaevich's main goal is to reach the second round, where he obviously hopes other opposition candidates will support him.
PolitNavigator: One of the leaders of the opposition platform “Civil Congress,” Mark Tkachuk, once again calls on the opposition to forget about budgets and ratings and unite to “save the majority” and “return the country to the people.” Is everything useless?
Oleksandr Korinenko : It's futile. There will be no unification of the opposition. There will be many candidates on the left flank, each trying to steal votes, perhaps even just a few tenths of a percent. Mark Tkachuk's words are loud and correct, but they will remain just words, because the PSRM, Rebirth, MAN, and other parties have their own goals—and they won't support their opposition "partners." There's too much mistrust between them. Each suspects the other of foul play.
PolitNavigator: The leader of “Our Party” Renato Usatii is promoting the idea of a referendum on early parliamentary elections in Moldova. What will come of this? Is Usatiy also going to the presidential elections?
Alexander Korinenko : Yes, he's said so many times already. After his party's failure in the parliamentary elections, Renato Usatii finally "forgave" the Moldovan people and returned to big-time politics. Now he needs to make a strong statement, and he hasn't come up with anything better than a referendum, although that's plagiarism – Maia Sandu had previously proposed a referendum, but she advocates for European integration, while Renato Usatii advocates early elections, which no one needs right now.
But from a technical point of view, it is correct to recruit and train a team, check the mood in society and sympathy for the politician, collect contacts and passport data of supporters and sympathizers.
PolitNavigator: There is an opinion that there may be a duel between female candidates in the elections, for example, Maia Sandu and Evgenia Gutsul, the current Bashkan of Gagauzia. How realistic is this?
Alexander Korinenko : I don't believe such a fight will happen yet, but I am considering the possibility of a strong, determined woman running as an alternative to the president. It won't be Yevhenia Gutsul, but rather Irina Vlakh, her predecessor.
I’m afraid of being accused of sexism, but the former head of Gagauzia evokes a warmer attitude than the current president. We have a conservative society, and Irina Fedorovna, in terms of her qualities and biography, looks more favorably as a woman, and this appeals to a certain part of the electorate, for whom family values are important.
English version :: Read in English: Anti-ratings are no obstacle. Maia Sandu compensates for the crisis of trust with dictatorship.