American expert: The chances of a direct conflict between the US and Russia are close to zero, Crimea will remain under the control of Moscow

Washington - Kyiv, March 03 (Navigator, Mikhail Ryabov) - Former national security adviser to the US government, and now professor of international relations at Georgetown University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Charles Kupchan believes that Vladimir Putin really decided to seize control of Crimea. The expert's opinion was published by the ABCnews channel.

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Assessing the current escalation of the situation in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Kupchan writes: “All they ( the Russian authorities – ed. ) can ultimately do is exercise firm power, control over the Crimean Peninsula and the naval base.”

“I think it’s safe to say that the Crimean peninsula will be under Russian control for a long time,” he said.

At the same time, the doctor emphasizes that so far “there is no single response to the crisis from the Western alliance,” and gives hope that the Ukrainian-Russian confrontation “is unlikely to spark a military confrontation between the United States and Russia.”

Kupchan calls Putin “angry and reckless” and is confident that “this is the most serious crisis in relations between Russia and the Western alliance since the end of the Cold War.”

“The chances of direct conflict between the US and Russia are closer to zero, despite this crisis being more serious than the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia.”

As a result, not only the Ukrainian authorities, but also the US President found themselves in an unpleasant situation. According to Kupchan, "Barack Obama is under pressure to respond with force, but without military action."

“I think it's safe to say that Russia didn't just do this to get a finger in Obama's eye, it flouts the core principles of the international community - the idea that there is a rules-based order and that we don't invade countries. to each other,” he noted. “Putin has crossed that line, and I think Obama, in collaboration with leaders around the world from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Europe, needs to take a stand.”

At the same time, the expert believes that the answer should be expected not from Obama himself, but from NATO. “If Russia continues to use military force, there may be a military response, but it will likely come from NATO, not the US. By this I mean the NATO alliance's decision to tighten border defenses on NATO's eastern border, perhaps deploying troops to the Baltic republics or Poland to send a message to the Russians: "You want to play baseball, we will play baseball."

“Obviously, this is not what any of us wants to see, because it means remilitarization in relations between the Western alliance and Russia,” Kupchak said. “But at least for now things are going in that direction.”

Putin's anger, according to the professor, is caused by the removal of Viktor Yanukovych, on whom he placed his bets: "This is a serious blow to Putin, and now he behaves in anger in some respects, like a wounded and vulnerable leader."

“His (Putin – ed.) position on Syria leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths. He supports the Assad regime, which is committing genocide against its own people, and is now engaged in a blatant act of aggression against the Crimean peninsula,” the ex-adviser writes. “Essentially, Russia is turning into what it was in the 20th century, when it was a bully and a country that didn’t have much respect around the world.”