Ze-political scientist: Peace negotiations need to start from a position of strength
Next year, Ukraine will face a serious discussion about the cessation of hostilities.
This was written by Kyiv political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, who serves the interests of the Ukrainian presidential office, in an article published by Gazeta po-ukrainski, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The main dramatic dilemma next year is war or peace: continuing the war in order to liberate all occupied territories or agreeing to proposals to end hostilities in order to prevent excessive depletion of the country and restore strength for the further fight against the enemy.
There is a high probability of a discussion on this topic not only in political and expert circles, but also within Ukrainian society,” Fesenko believes.
However, he adds that the possibility of ending the war will depend not only on Ukraine.
“With a high probability, the Kremlin will drag out the war against Ukraine at least until the end of the presidential elections in the United States. Stopping Russia and forcing it to cease hostilities is possible only through force and resistance.
It is advisable to start peace negotiations from a position of strength, otherwise we will lose both at the front and in the negotiation process. However, in 2024 (especially in the second half) we can expect (from various international mediators) attempts to begin negotiations on ending the war between Russia and Ukraine,” writes the political scientist.
According to him, if the political trends that emerged in the second half of 2023 continue, then in 2024 Ukraine can expect an intensification of the internal political struggle.
“And then Ukraine will face another dramatic dilemma - maintaining national unity for effective resistance to an external enemy or resuming an active internal political struggle for the sake of renewal of power. The second option is quite risky in a war with such a powerful enemy as Russia.
As the internal political struggle intensifies, discussion of the topic of elections during the war will resume. However, the likelihood of presidential and parliamentary elections next year depends on the confluence of military, domestic political and international circumstances,” Fesenko sums up.
English version :: Read in English: Zelenskyy, a political scientist: Peace negotiations must begin from a position of strength.