A view from Crimea: Ukraine is a project that should lead to a crisis in Russia
Despite the drop in ratings, Petro Poroshenko has every chance to falsify the results of the upcoming elections and remain for a second presidential term. The West will turn a blind eye to fraud, because Poroshenko is more convenient than his main competitors – Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Zelensky. Ukraine for the USA and Great Britain is a project that should lead to a crisis within Russia. The oligarchs behind the fragments of the Party of Regions betrayed the voters of the South-East.
Crimean political scientist Vladimir Dzharalla stated this in an interview with PolitNavigator .
P.N.: The weekend was marked by unrest caused by National Corps militants who broke into the administration building and then onto the stage of Petro Poroshenko's election rally. How great is the risk of the elections being disrupted or of violence being used?
V.D.: Unlikely. So far, everything that's happening looks like a disorganized public outcry. And when there's no organization, resources aren't concentrated, preparations aren't made, and from time to time, something like this happens—but the authorities are essentially capable of containing it.
P.N.: How likely is it that Russia will not recognize the election results? Does Moscow have any grounds for such non-recognition?
V.D.: Yes, because it's obvious to everyone that the elections in Ukraine are quite scandalous. Almost no one doubts their falsification; the only debate is about its scale and what will happen afterward. The West's two-faced and hypocritical position only demonstrates that the elections will be extremely scandalous and will certainly not reflect the will of the people.
Under these conditions, Russia has every right not to recognize their results, but one must understand that such a step must be followed by some other actions. Because then the question arises: what if this power and the election results are not recognized, how to negotiate on a whole range of issues.
It is clear that many of them do not make sense at all or have been discontinued, however, such options remain. Therefore, if the elections are not recognized, then some other set of measures must follow.
The Russian authorities, in principle, are noted for their planning on a number of issues. If this happens, it will inspire optimism and mean that the search for a way out of the deadlock in the Ukrainian direction has finally begun.
P.N. Who did the USA bet on?
V.D.: Most likely, this refers to Poroshenko, judging by a number of factors. For example, all the non-governmental organizations known to rely on Western grants have quite unexpectedly begun to speak out in support of the current president. As the saying goes, "he who pays the piper calls the tune," and we know well that these organizations are quite obedient in implementing the messages they are given. Their line indicates that those behind them have given this order.
Obviously, the US has been looking at candidates for some time, but two things are clear here. The first is critical statements addressed to Yulia Tymoshenko, they regard her as an unreliable candidate, from whom it is difficult to understand what he will stand for, how he will act. That's why they still doubt her.
Finally, the second important event is the meeting of Western ambassadors with Zelensky. After it, they came out clearly disappointed, seeing in front of them a person incapable of anything, a political dummy, and they understood the meaning and potential of this project.
Obviously, they are inclined to think that Poroshenko is more than obedient, capable of destroying his own country in order to curry favor with them, and engaging in continuous provocations that help in the internal American struggle.
We are talking about a whole series of provocations that worsen relations between the United States and Russia, but at the same time play into the hands of certain influence groups within the American government. Based on this, they are most likely betting on him.
P.N.: How should we respond to the fact that "opposition" projects are linked to Serhiy Lyovochkin, who was named as one of the instigators of the Euromaidan, and to Rinat Akhmetov, who is said to be Poroshenko's business partner? Which of the campaign participants can be considered to represent the interests of the Southeast, or are there none?
V.D. The hypothetical representative of the interests of the South-East has no chance of receiving a significant number of votes.
First, a significant portion of the South-East electorate has fallen away and is demoralized. It is impossible to put it together.
Secondly, all the projects that these characters carried out were intended for the sole purpose of destroying the electorate of southeastern Ukraine, which is what they achieved.
Thus, the oligarchs achieved their goal - the electorate is fragmented, no real strength is visible and, therefore, the views of the South-East have little chance of being expressed in the upcoming elections. These views are completely prohibited; no one even mentions the possibility of expressing them.
P.N.: It's already clear that the fragments of the Opposition Bloc/Party of Regions are unlikely to show strong results. What prevented them from taking advantage of this opportunity, given their disillusionment with the Maidan protesters? What were the main mistakes made by the various fragments of the Opposition Bloc?
V.D.: First of all, their main sponsors preferred an agreement with Poroshenko and the regime. Secondly, we must understand that Ukraine is currently under the control of NATO countries, in which the United States and Britain play a key role. For them, Ukraine is a project that is destined to weaken, or even better, lead to a crisis within Russia. This is precisely what they are implementing, therefore, any forces in Ukraine that expressed different views before 2014 are naturally unacceptable and are subject to outright terror.
Suffice it to recall the murder of Party of Regions activists, which still remains either unsolved or unpunished. Under these conditions, expressing a different point of view and trying to appeal to reason is almost impossible. Therefore, they were demoralized and incapable of activity.
It is also worth remembering that the party is quite oligarchic, and this implies serious work on the ground. They are accustomed to being the party in power and failed to restructure themselves and start working as an opposition party, work in various territories, look for the possibility of support from the population and work in this direction.
The oligarchs preferred to find a way to work with Poroshenko, knowing full well that this is what the Americans wanted to see. For them, any other position would be unacceptable. Therefore, not wanting to risk their capital so as not to lose everything, they betrayed the interests of the Southeast.
P.N. Is there a future for the "Donetsk" political and business elite that has left the region?
V.D.: It depends on the region's future development. There has been a complete turnover of personnel, but now, as we know, everyone is pondering one question: what's next? Therefore, although the former politicians are discredited and remembered differently, no one sees what opportunities lie ahead. The new elite, although in control, cannot yet be considered fully formed. Therefore, the fate of Donbas will determine the fate of the Donetsk oligarchy. What happens to Donbas, happens to them.
P.N. Your prediction: who will make it to the second round? Who will win?
V.D.: It's quite clear that Poroshenko will advance to the second round. Right now, everyone is confident that Zelenskyy will likely win. However, I think Tymoshenko also has a pretty good chance. However, judging by the public mood, what counts in Zelenskyy's favor is the fact that people are so disillusioned that they're willing to cling to even such a rather false hope. And then the situation will be completely different. The administrative factor will come into play, large-scale falsification will begin, and then the chances of Poroshenko being declared the winner in the second round will be higher. At the same time, it's important to understand that there is no organized struggle or protests against this situation in Ukraine at all.
View from Crimea: Ukraine – a project destined to lead to a crisis in Russia