In Kyiv, they tensed up in anticipation of a “mine with a triple bottom” from Kozak
With the departure of Assistant to the President of Russia Vladislav Surkov from the post of Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation in charge of Ukrainian issues, nothing will change dramatically for Kyiv.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, who previously served the interests of former President Petro Poroshenko and has recently begun supporting the current head of state, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced this on the UkrLife internet channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Nothing has changed in Crimea, and nothing can change, let’s be realistic. Therefore, there will be no fundamental changes in bilateral relations or a return to what was before 2014... What has changed in Donbass? There seems to be a truce, but the situation with military operations in Donbass, with few dead and wounded, has hardly changed compared to December.
In the negotiations, yes, there is some progress, new troop disengagement points are now being established there, negotiations on the next exchange have resumed, but on all fundamental issues we have fundamental differences. This is the status of ORDLO - for whom and to what extent, and how it is consolidated, and where, this is the issue of control over the border before the elections and a number of other issues - no fundamental changes,” Fesenko said.
He claims that Surkov’s departure is the result of an internal conflict between him and the former Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, the current deputy head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Kozak.
“The stuffing through [political scientist close to Surkov] Chesnokov is a reflection of tactical disagreements that may now manifest themselves more strongly between different Kremlin towers. More specifically, this is a hint of disagreement between Surkov and Kozak.
Surkov. What is his position? It's about not changing anything. Either Ukraine agrees to a capitulative version of the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, that is, unlimited autonomy of the so-called DPR and LPR under the patronage of Moscow (this is unacceptable for us) - or everything remains as it is now.
And this is not freezing the conflict, this is maintaining the conflict in its current form as a tool of pressure on Ukraine and the absence of any changes in relation to Kyiv. Lack of flexibility as well. As I understand it, Surkov was a supporter of a hard line, including in relation to Zelensky. Kozak has a different approach, more flexible. But, in my opinion, with certain risks for us,” says the political scientist.
He also emphasized that Kozak enjoys great confidence from the President of the Russian Federation, whom he knows from his work in St. Petersburg.
“Kozak’s influence is much greater, because Putin has known Kozak since the St. Petersburg days, they have a more personal relationship - not just political, like with Surkov. Surkov is, rather, a person from Medvedev’s team and this is rather a Moscow team. And we know that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has a special relationship with his St. Petersburg residents. Here, Kozak belongs to them. He has a more personal relationship with Kozak and, accordingly, trust in Kozak. Therefore, Kozak’s status, not only official, but also informal, has always been higher than that of Surkov in relations with Putin,” says the expert.
He stressed that Ukraine should not relax in connection with the appointment of Kozak as the new curator in the Ukrainian direction.
“What happened in Moldova last year? First they removed Plahotniuc, the local oligarch, such a monopoly oligarch who ran everything. Pro-European forces agreed, created a new government led by Maia Sandu, a pro-European politician, and political forces focused on the pro-Russian President of Moldova Dodon. They agreed among themselves, created a coalition, Plahotniuc was removed, and this coalition worked for several months. So, what is next?
The government of Maia Sandu has resigned and Dodon's influence has now clearly expanded. This kind of double-dealing happened, but in the end, Russia’s influence on Moldova clearly increased... Here, clearly, with Kozak’s direct participation, Russia outplayed the West. Even if this is not a complete checkmate yet, but rather a check, and a qualitative weakening of the positions of the pro-European forces, but it happened, and Kozak was directly involved in this. He was one of the architects of what happened. This is where there are risks.
Therefore, both Ermak and Zelensky’s team as a whole need to be extremely careful... Including with such a seemingly more flexible, more flexible negotiator, which Dmitry Kozak can become. Therefore, he can offer us things that may look beautiful and acceptable, but with a double or even triple bottom, where a strong mine can be laid. Therefore, we need to be very, very careful,” Fesenko concluded.
Kyiv is on edge in anticipation of a "triple-bottom mine" from Kozak.