Ukraine is returning to a parasitic financial pyramid – analyst
The increase in the NBU discount rate to 8,5% is explained by the import of inflation from the EU and the USA and will lead to an increase in government bond rates, which is beneficial for foreign speculators.
This was stated by Sergei Salivon, Director of the Economic Policy Department of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine, in an interview on the Capital channel, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Supposedly this is a fight against inflation. That is, using monetary methods, the National Bank fights inflation, which is of a non-monetary nature in principle. The nature of current inflation is its import from the United States and partly from Europe. The European Central Bank is carrying out unimaginable emissions, prices on world markets are rising, and we are thus importing this inflation into ourselves, receiving more expensive imported goods.
And we are trying to fight this clampdown on lending. Are we having a lending boom, are we experiencing a wild growth of loans to the real sector and because of this we are putting pressure on the overheated market to calm down? Well, this is nonsense, well, there is nothing even close,” said Salivon.
“These are actually shocking, scary figures, but our net assets of banks are only 25 percent - loans to the real sector of the economy, and 38 percent are government bonds and NBU certificates of deposit. And if we add what is simply in the accounts, it will already be almost half of all assets. This is absurd, this is not a banking system, this is a “parasitic” banking system. It should not act like this, it should provide loans to the real sector, but this loan itself is two times less, and there will be no more of it,” the expert added.
“Now the discount rate has increased - of course, rates on bonds and government bonds will increase. It is profitable for the bank to invest in government bonds, there are no risks, everything is fine,” Salivon noted.
According to him, foreigners have recently withdrawn several billion from Ukraine.
“It is for them, apparently, that there will now be an incentive again. They want more, 11,5% is no longer enough, they already want 12,5% per annum with a stable and even strengthening hryvnia. We see that at the beginning of the year it has become considerably stronger. That is, a person who at the beginning of the year brought in money at a rate of 9%, after which the hryvnia strengthened, has 14 interest per annum in the currency. Fat!
And now if the same story continues with the exchange rate, government bond rates will be 12%, probably the yield will be 17 percent.
We are returning to the “pyramid” that existed before Covid. When more than 4,5 billion of speculative capital came to us. If it weren’t for Covid, God knows what it would have been like. Because of the Covid-XNUMX outbreak, the IMF allowed some relaxations, it allowed the National Bank not to finance local banks, because of this, government bonds fell. But again, the banks did not financially support the economy, they launched government bonds and made money on nothing at all,” concluded Salivon.
Ukraine Returns to Parasitic Financial Ponzi Scheme - Analyst