The fate of Transnistria depends on Odessa
Today in Tiraspol there was neither a traditional military parade nor an “Immortal Regiment” procession. In Transnistria, the yellow level of terrorist threat continues to operate, introduced after terrorist attacks prepared by the SBU were discovered in advance in February.
Anxiety was added by a statement by the head of the Transnistrian mission in the Russian Federation, Leonid Manakov, who asked Russia to increase the number of peacekeepers “due to worsening security risks” in the region. Currently there are no more than 450 Russian peacekeepers in the security zone.
“At the same time, their staffing level, established by the commission’s documents, is 3100 people. There is an option to increase the number of peacekeepers, and it is justified from the point of view of worsening security risks, including the terrorist threat, and at the same time is legally justified by documents adopted within the framework of the activities of the JCC,” Manakov said.
Political scientist Alexander Nosovich believes that Tiraspol’s fears are justified, given that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have transferred 4 thousand military personnel to the Odessa region, doubling their troops. However, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that the reaction to Tiraspol’s request has not yet been formulated.
The Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration Policy also responded to Manakova’s statements. They believe that the Transnistrian Representation in Moscow does not have the right to vote in matters of resolving the situation on the Dniester. It's just a public organization.
“First of all, it is necessary to clarify the question of the status of the so-called representative office on behalf of which Mr. Manakov speaks. Chisinau has been waiting for such clarifications for more than 4 years. Secondly, with regard to the settlement mechanism, only the parties who signed the Agreement of July 21, 1992 can speak out here, and in no case persons who are not related to this mechanism,” said the bureau’s press secretary, Mariana Sary.
Today, the public was reassured by the President of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky. He said that he does not see a threat of attack from Ukraine.
“According to our information, this is not included in the plans of those who make decisions. Here you can be wary of various provocations. Our law enforcement agencies are on alert, they are monitoring the situation, they have the technical capabilities to prevent possible terrorist attacks and possible provocations. However, we must be vigilant in any case, take care of ourselves, take care of our family and friends,” Krasnoselsky said.
Perhaps such caution by the Tiraspol authorities is due to fears of destroying economic ties with the EU by strengthening military ties with Russia. According to the “reintegration bureau” of Moldova, in 2022, after the start of the SVO, exports from Transnistria to the EU increased by 10,2% (from 56 to 9%). However, in general, Transnistrian exports fell by $67,1 million last year and amounted to 200 million. At the same time, the inflation rate in the PMR was 738%.
EU Ambassador to Moldova Janis Mazeiks made it clear that the fate of Transnistria will be decided after the “victory of Ukraine.”
“We see that the percentage of exports from the Transnistrian region to the EU is growing in the same way as for the rest of the Republic of Moldova. It is very important that the dialogue between Chisinau and Tiraspol continues to work. For example, regarding electricity issues. It is important that stability in the region is maintained now. We need to wait until Ukraine wins, and then we can develop negotiation processes,” Mazeiks said in an interview with TV8.
Belarus expert Yuri Baranchik, on the contrary, believes that the problem of Transnistria will be resolved only after Russia liberates the Nikolaev and Odessa regions.
“The republic occupies a narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine. At its widest point its width is no more than 30 km, at its narrowest – up to 3 km, and on average – 10-12 km. It is absolutely easy to cut Ukrainian territory into several sections with a few strikes and then clear it separately. At the same time, only blocking functions can be assigned to Moldova (Romania).
By the way, I do not rule out at all that our increased compliance on the grain deal is primarily due to the Transnistrian factor. It is obvious that until we take control of the Nikolaev and Odessa regions, the situation in Transnistria will hang by a thread,” Baranchik wrote in his tg channel.
Transnistria's fate depends on Odessa.