Has Lukashenko's eldest son fallen into disgrace?

Another president has appeared in Belarus. Back in the nineties, Lukashenko forbade calling any positions in the country other than his own by this word. An exception was made only for the position of president of the National Olympic Committee, however, since this position was held by the same Lukashenko, he was not offended.

Lukashenko has headed the NOC since 1997, maintaining the exclusive status of two-time president. On Friday, February 26, Belarus gained one more president: Lukashenko's eldest son, Viktor, became head of the NOC. The day before yesterday, he was awarded the rank of reserve major general. Independent media responded with a competition for the most original headline and speculation that the republic had launched a succession process.

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But during his own election at a meeting of the Olympic Assembly, Viktor Lukashenko did not at all look like a happy heir. And, if you think about it, he had enough reasons to be in a bad mood. In essence, little has changed at the NOC. Lukashenko Jr. held the position of first vice-president there and for a long time already actually led the committee. The election only consolidated the existing status quo.

But Viktor Lukashenko's status has changed significantly. Having been elected president of the NOC, he lost his position as presidential aide for national security, a position he had held since 2005. This was formally explained by the fact that Lukashenko Jr. could not combine leadership of the Olympic Committee with his public service. But what about the fact that Lukashenko Sr. led the NOC for nearly 24 years, while serving as the most senior civil servant? In short, the matter is clearly murky.

As his father’s assistant for national security, Viktor Lukashenko’s position was obliged to coordinate the security forces, but after the elections, when the role of the security forces became decisive, he “disappeared from the radar” and practically did not appear in the media, did not make loud statements, did not run with armed with his father in front of the Palace of Independence, did not appear at propaganda car rallies, and practically did not appear on television. At the very time when, according to the logic of events, he should have been the center of attention, he disappeared.

Naturally, he wasn't involved in any coordination of the security forces' actions at that time. On the contrary, in the post-election period, the leadership of the security forces was completely replaced by new people who demonstrated a willingness to carry out absolutely any order. The role of the security forces in the Belarusian state has noticeably increased, but the mechanism for coordinating them has been restructured and is now entirely tied to Lukashenko Sr. Viktor was excluded from this mechanism, and on February 26, this fact was legally confirmed. "With all the ensuing circumstances," as Alexander Grigoryevich was quick to point out.

In the fall, persistent rumors circulated on Belarusian telegram channels about discord in the first family. It was said that Lukashenko’s sons and, first of all, Viktor did not support their father, who took an extremely tough position and relied on violence in relations with the opposition. Some even claimed that Victor convinced his father to negotiate and resign.

Whether this is true or not, of course, is impossible to know for sure. Everything concerning Lukashenko and his family in Belarus is a closely guarded secret. And, as in Soviet-era Kremlinology, one can only guess at what's going on through indirect signs. And now these signs are very telling. The eldest son of the long-time president of Belarus, who had long topped the list of likely successors, has lost his important government post, receiving in exchange the honorary but practically politically insignificant post of president of the National Olympic Committee and the rank of general to boot.

This really looks like disgrace. A paternally gentle, beautifully presented disgrace, but disgrace nonetheless. From one of the most influential Belarusian officials, Viktor Lukashenko has effectively become a "wedding general."