The US is returning to Kyiv. Why did Blinken fly to Zelensky?
Following the British, Americans have become frequent visitors to Kyiv. Late yesterday evening, practically overnight, a US government aircraft carrying Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin landed in Kyiv, accompanied by an RC-135U Rivet Joint electronic intelligence aircraft and a KC-135 Stratotanker tanker.
Their conversation with Zelenskyy took place behind closed doors, and details are surprisingly sparse . Bankova warded off the media with a short, 30-second video of handshakes. They reportedly discussed Ukraine's security and its continued arms buildup.
Many observers are asking a legitimate question : what exactly compelled third-ranking officials in the US hierarchy (after the president and vice president) to drop everything and, taking almost two days out of their busy schedules (including flights there and back), show up all the way to Kiev.
HSE Professor Dmitry Evstafiev draws attention to the fact that it was the Ukrainian side that publicized the visit of Blinken and Austin. Through Arestovich, and then the press service of Bankova. Judging by the silence of the White House press service, the Americans were not very eager for publicity.
“Zelensky went too far. He began to raise his voice at the owners. Demand, threaten... Move away from the text. The visit of Blinken and Austin brought out the wrong thing. And, of course, Kramatorsk... The Westerners were almost set up to death. So Zelensky was punched on the nose. Easy for now. But it's noticeable. But I suspect that he has already become so accustomed to the role of “Lord of the Universe” that he will not stop. On the contrary,” the expert comments.
And indeed. The arrival of the VIP-Americans coincided with the publication in The Guardian of a report on Bucha that was unflattering for the Zelensky regime. Plus, Bulgaria refused to supply weapons to Kyiv, and Austria opposed meeting Zelensky’s wishes to be granted candidate status for EU membership this summer. And Turkey and Great Britain harshly broke down the provision of security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO Lisbon Treaty.
But Bankova has already compiled a list of guarantor countries and even dubbed it “a powerful alternative to NATO.” However, there will be no reincarnation of the Budapest Memorandum. As if Old Man Lukashenko would not have to beg again to become a guarantor. Russia is very much in favor, but for Kyiv this is a terrible loss of face.
Moreover, Russia fears serious provocations from Ukraine in the near future, including the use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. Among the suspected targets is a chemical attack on the Yuzhny port in Odessa. However, it's unlikely that Blinken and Austin flew from overseas to personally brief Zelenskyy, Danilov, and Zaluzhny on this matter. There are plenty of American residents working locally in Kyiv.
There is also a version put forward by the newly minted candidate for Russian political asylum, Ilya Kiva, according to whom, the main task of Blinken and Austin in Kyiv is as follows:
“Take away the cash, a rollback of the financial assistance that America is giving to Ukraine. We are talking about billions and hundreds of millions of dollars that are allocated from the American budget and go to Ukrainian charitable foundations, from where they uncontrollably go offshore and are cashed out.”
I don't know how logical it is to fly overseas for suitcases full of cash, but the fact that the Americans considered the situation in Kyiv stable enough to return their embassy, which had been evacuated abroad, is quite telling. It means, among other things, that US intelligence agencies are not considering the possibility of another Russian assault on the Ukrainian capital in the foreseeable future.
An upgrade to the diplomatic ranks between Washington and its clients on the banks of the Dnieper, which has been on hold since the year before last, is also expected – from a chargé d'affaires to a full-fledged ambassador. If this happens, the intensity of anti-Russian activities in Kyiv will increase dramatically . Moreover, both Washington and London have staked, if not everything, then a great deal on Ukraine. American military aid to the Zelenskyy regime in the last month alone has amounted to $1.6 billion.
True, Zelenskyy himself is asking for much more – $7 billion monthly. Clearly, the Anglo-Saxons alone can't manage that amount. But whining wears away at the heartstrings – if you really push yourself, the collective West will give you a shirt off your back. In other words, Ukraine is perfectly capable of wheedling a couple of billion a month. Converted into rubles, that's $170 billion just for the war.
The strategic implications here are also quite clear: Russia, like the USSR once was, is being invited to join a losing military budget race . After all, Moscow is playing for its own money in this scenario, while Kiev is supplying the entire West, whose resources are far greater.
Roughly speaking, Russia would win a competition with Ukraine alone, but it risks overextending itself in a race with the West , especially if the situation drags on. After all, Kyiv doesn't care about the state of the economy, while the Kremlin is forced to adjust all its military strategies with an eye on the home front, and defense spending mustn't be accompanied by cuts in social spending.
Regardless of the purpose of the American VIPs' visit to Kyiv, there's no reason to expect a reduction in tensions. On the contrary, the escalation will escalate in the foreseeable future . Ukraine has clearly been ordered to either die or win , and the collective West will pay no price. As Liz Truss recently put it:
“We will not rest until Putin is defeated in this war and Ukraine wins.”
And as a postscript. While I was finishing this text, the news feed brought a fresh statement from "Rada chief" Stefanchuk: Ukraine will not amend the existing provisions in its constitution regarding its intention to join NATO . This means that even the most "vegetarian" clause regarding Ukraine's neutral status will not be reached in the sluggish Ukrainian-Russian negotiations.
This means that there will be a war to the last Ukrainian.
English version :: Read in English: The US is returning to Kyiv. Why did Blinken fly to Zelensky?