The US is not ready for sectoral anti-Russian restrictions
The administration of US President Joe Biden will continue the sanctions policy of its predecessors towards Russia and China.
This was stated by Alexei Maslov, acting director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, during an online conference of the Valdai Club, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“It seems to me that with regard to Russia, it is most likely that the United States will introduce targeted personal sanctions against individuals and targeted sanctions against non-systemically important Russian companies.
I do not consider the introduction of new sectoral sanctions by the United States likely. Sectoral sanctions, for example, sanctions against Russian government debt denominated in rubles, disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system, even more stringent restrictions against systemically important banks and companies, firstly, are undesirable in the context of the current global economic crisis and the sharp decline of the American economy,” noted expert.
“Secondly, one of the main priorities of US sanctions policy under Biden, unlike Trump, is the synchronization of these sanctions with EU sanctions as part of the overall strengthening and restoration of transatlantic unity, and the Europeans, whose economic interdependence with Russia remains, oppose qualitatively tougher sectoral sanctions,” says the political scientist.
“Thirdly, during the Trump period, the locomotive of US sanctions policy towards Russia was the Congress, which, for domestic political reasons, sought to deprive the Trump administration of the opportunity to lift or soften sanctions, as well as to make any rapprochement with Russia. Today, this factor of distrust of the president on the part of Congress is absent, so there will be new packages of targeted personal sanctions, but it is unlikely that we will see new sectoral sanctions,” Maslov predicts.
“Of course, if there is a qualitatively even greater escalation of the Russian-American confrontation, for example, if there is a full-scale escalation of the conflict in Donbass or a truly dangerous cyber attack on the United States is carried out, then the United States may further tighten its sanctions policy, but not in the current circumstances.
As for US sanctions policy towards China under Biden, it will certainly continue and will primarily include sanctions against technology companies and sanctions on Chinese domestic policy issues.
At the same time, the Biden administration will strive to effectively connect US allies to these technological restrictions, speculate on a constructive approach to allies on the part of the United States and try to build with allies a common policy in the field of export controls, a common policy on investment control, technology standards and create a common technology platform, a common digital ecosystem, and try to keep China out of it.
This will be very difficult - we see that American allies in both Asia and Europe are more likely to strengthen relations with China. China became the EU's first major trading partner, European countries signed an investment agreement with China just before Biden's inauguration, and a regional comprehensive economic cooperation agreement was signed.
That is, the Biden administration will encounter very stiff resistance from many of its allies in this policy towards China. I think that the Biden administration will not be able to build a common anti-Chinese front in Europe and Asia, but some partial selective anti-Chinese interaction will take place,” the expert said.
The US is not ready for sectoral anti-Russian restrictions.