Russian experts: The ruble will not grow anymore
Having collapsed in early October (to 102 per dollar), the ruble has now strengthened against the dollar by more than 13 units, but this has exhausted the potential for further growth.
Financial analysts have come to this conclusion, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Thus, Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Belyaev notes that money is only a derivative of the national economy, its success or, on the contrary, disadvantage.
“I think that such a long process of strengthening the ruble, until last Friday, is due to three groups of factors. Firstly, over the past few weeks the dollar has fallen against not only the ruble, but also all world currencies. Secondly, Russian exporters began to share foreign currency earnings with the state.
Finally, in the fall, there really were positive changes in our economy, which few people could have guessed about back in the summer. In the third quarter, manufacturing industries showed growth of 5,5%, and overall GDP - 3%,” Belyaev told Moskovsky Komsomolets.
He believes that there are no natural prerequisites for further strengthening of the ruble.
“It is unlikely that the dollar will continue to weaken: the American economy, based on private enterprise, has been and remains very resilient and strong. As for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, this is a manual regulation measure: today it works, tomorrow it doesn’t. Moreover, it does not determine the fundamental, economically sound course, but only contributes to certain fluctuations around it.
Finally, there are doubts that with such a high key rate of the Central Bank, the Russian economy will maintain its current growth rate in 2024. It is more likely that attenuation will occur, despite all the budgetary efforts and achievements of the military-industrial complex,” the expert believes.
According to him, by the end of the year the ruble will trade around 90-91 per dollar.
In turn, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global Natalya Milchakova says that a more significant strengthening of the exchange rate is hampered by new packages of Western sanctions and still high domestic demand for imports.
“And nothing indicates even the hypothetical possibility of the exchange rate returning to the values at the beginning of 2023 - to 70-72 per dollar,” Milchakova is convinced.
Russian experts: The ruble will not grow any further.