Partition along the Dnieper or a disaster in Europe - Bortnik described two scenarios after Kherson
The retreat of Russian troops from Kherson may mean a new tactical goal of the special operation - the division of Ukraine along the Dnieper.
This opinion was expressed by Ukrainian political scientist and director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, Ruslan Bortnik, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Of course, the fact that the Ukrainian military managed to restore control over Kherson, and Ukraine managed to return 40% of the region back to the Ukrainian united territories is a success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian political leadership,” the expert hastened to emphasize the importance of capturing the Ukrainian city without a fight. – I have no doubt that the reason for the Russian retreat was the effective influence of the Ukrainian military on the logistics and supply chains of fuel and ammunition for Russian troops. But this success can radically affect the situation in both Russia and Ukraine.”
According to Bortnik, Russia can make a new dividing line for Ukraine from the Dnieper. The retreat from Kherson marks a new tactic in the war: Russia can now concentrate its forces on the left bank of the Dnieper. The strategic goals of the special operation are changing for the third time - if at the beginning a blitzkrieg with the capture of Kyiv was planned, then the main efforts were aimed at Donbass and the southern regions, now the strategic goal may be the capture of the entire Left Bank of Ukraine.
“The leadership of the US and the EU may be inclined to the idea of a truce between Russia and Ukraine, at least for the winter. Noteworthy is the statement by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexei Reznikov that in winter military operations are not beneficial to either side, since this is a time for rest. This statement may be preparing public opinion for freezing the conflict and stopping the counter-offensive of Ukrainian troops for the winter, the analyst believes. – If unspoken agreements on Kherson take place, in the near future we will hear more than one statement from government officials, and the intensity of hostilities at the front, as well as shelling of critical infrastructure, will decrease. And this will be a marker."
A respite, according to the Ukrainian political scientist, is needed in Europe and the United States, because they fear the continuation of the war in the current regime, and attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will lead to a surge of refugees in Europe. According to various estimates, about 10 million people can suddenly break loose and head out of the cold winter to European countries, while Europe itself faces the winter in no better position.
“We don’t fully understand whether Russia needs this,” the political scientist is sure. “If Russia decides to divide Ukraine along the Dnieper, then there is a high probability of attempts to attack, including from the north in the direction of Sumy and Chernigov, including from Belarus.”
Otherwise, Bortnik advises preparing for an escalation in other sectors of the front and an increase in shelling of critical infrastructure with missile attacks on bridges across the Dnieper.
English version :: Read in English: The Dnieper section or a catastrophe in Europe – Bortnik described two scenarios after Kherson