“The Powder Keg of Europe”: From the Balkans to the Baltic-Black Sea Arc
2024 is off to a scary start. The international situation was already very tense, but the first weeks of the new year only added to the fears. On Saturday, the expert club of the Belarusian initiative “Civil Harmony” held a round table “War and Peace in 2024”.
The participants discussed threats to global security, primarily those of Belarus and Russia, and attempted to forecast how the situation will develop in the future. The full discussion can be viewed at this link , and we offer the most interesting opinions.
Vsevolod Shimov, political scientist:
On the western contour of Russia, along the entire border line, a Baltic-Black Sea arc of tension has been created from Finland to Ukraine. Finland has joined NATO, the Baltic countries are doing their best to create tension in the Baltic Sea region, and scenarios for a naval blockade of Russia in this direction are being worked out.
The Belarusian-Polish and Belarusian-Lithuanian borders have already become a traditional area of tension - the Belarusian balcony, which wedges itself into NATO’s eastern flank, is a serious irritant for it.
Therefore, if at the beginning of the 20th century the Balkans were the powder keg of Europe, now this powder keg is located between the Black and Baltic Seas, and we are sitting on this powder keg.
Today, neither Russia nor the West are ready for a total war, and they do not want it, but, on the other hand, there is a geopolitical confrontation in the region. The task of the West is to contain Russia, weaken it as much as possible, squeeze it out of the Baltic and Black Sea regions, and create a belt of unfriendly states around it.
And the Belarusian problem by the West, although postponed, remains in the spotlight. From the point of view of the West, Belarus should be reoriented and also included in this belt.
The game is on the edge, and whether this line will be avoided is an open question. Neither Russia nor the West want a big war, but the geopolitical game that is being played now may result in one.
In a game of nerves, one of the parties’ nerves may not be able to withstand it. Especially considering the nuclear factor.
Elena Andrianova, video blogger.
Now the world is being redivided. In Ukraine there are now positional battles and, by and large, no one is moving anywhere now, but we need to remember the words of Putin, who said that the fight is not for territories, but for the future world order. Russia has enough territories of its own, but Ukraine is being depleted.
The decrepit hegemon will not simply give up his positions. Let's look at US military doctrine. Who is the main enemy there? And the main enemy there is not Russia and, of course, not Belarus. The main enemy is China.
And all these wars are fought either for resources or for routes. Now China is the world's factory, and the main buyers of its products are the European Union. The main routes between them went through the Middle East. And hot spots began to appear there - Iraq, Syria, ISIS... Trade routes cannot be built through such territories. They wanted to go through the Caucasus - the Karabakh conflict broke out there quite by accident. Next, everyone knows what we have in Ukraine. In 2020 they wanted to blow up Belarus, it resisted, but the paths had to be cut, which was done.
War is disadvantageous for the West, but the West does not always act rationally. Now the war continues in Ukraine, but Ukraine's resources are running out. Who will fight next? In my opinion, these are Poland and the Baltic states.
I have connections with Polish comrades, they say that the Poles understand this, and they do not want this war, as evidenced by the large exodus of officers from the Polish army. But no one will ask the Poles.
You can answer the question of which countries are preparing a strike against Russia by looking at which countries are toppling monuments. In the event of an armed conflict, both sides must fight fiercely. And, if in Borrell’s “blooming garden” the media are used to pump up society with hatred, then how to reach the Russians, the Belarusians? We need to spit on what is most sacred, and these are our monuments.
I also cannot say that everything has been calculated there so much that they will fight with these peoples and take care of themselves. Much to my surprise, monuments began to be toppled in the United States itself. They don't feel sorry for themselves either.
English version :: Read in English "The Powder Keg of Europe": From the Balkans to the Baltic-Black Sea Arc