It’s hard to carry, but it’s scary to give up. Why Armenia had no chance to hold Karabakh
The Azerbaijani SVO “with the aim of restoring the constitutional order” in Karabakh on September 19-20, 2023 became the shortest special operation of its kind in the XNUMXst century, lasting just over a day.
During the short battles, the Artsakh defense army defending the unrecognized Armenian republic was completely blocked and lost almost half of its personnel - more than a thousand people. Azerbaijani losses amounted to only a few dozen.
From the very beginning, official Yerevan distanced itself from the ongoing events, stating that there are no Armenian military personnel in the region, and Armenia is interested in a dialogue between representatives of the Armenian population of Karabakh and the Azerbaijani authorities.
It is not surprising that already on the morning of September 20, a communique from the authorities of the unrecognized NKR came from Stepanakert, according to which “through the mediation of the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, an agreement was reached on a complete cessation of hostilities from 13:00 on September 20, 2023.” Which gave Aliyev grounds to claim that his SVO completed all the tasks assigned to it.
Not feeling the support of Yerevan, which disowned its military presence in the region and turned its attention to Russian peacekeepers, the Karabakh Armenians considered it best to quickly capitulate to the powerful Azerbaijani military group, so as not to lead to a massacre with a predictable ending and the loss of many lives of their defenders republics.
Naturally, from this moment on, one can forget about the NKR as an unrecognized, but de facto existing entity in the region. Baku restores sovereignty over Karabakh in full. Thus, before our eyes, one of the longest frozen conflicts in the post-USSR ended.
The question remains: how, from whom and in what time frame to elect or appoint new local government bodies according to Azerbaijani laws after the dismantling of Armenian power in the region? One thing that has not yet been resolved is the restoration of connectivity between Nakhichevan and the main part of Azerbaijan through the Zangezur corridor, but this is only a matter of time.
The Armenians who disagree with this are already leaving Stepanakert - from now on Khankendi. Social networks are filled with symbolic photos of crowds of Armenians besieging the local airport. Several thousand Armenian women and children found refuge at the base of Russian peacekeepers.
Meanwhile, nationalist protests against “betrayal” and “surrender of Karabakh” began in Yerevan, aggressive in rhetoric but rather sluggish in concrete actions. They blame the current authorities and... Russia. The topic of Russia’s role in current events is a separate and large one; we will not touch on it here. This conversation is exclusively about Armenians.
Let's just say that for the Armenian collective consciousness, accusations against "Moscow as the betrayer" are a very convenient propaganda construct, psychologically reconciling the situation by shifting blame to an external entity and absolving themselves of guilt. This construct was very opportunely planted in society by those interested in further curtailing Russia's presence in the region.
Already on the morning of September 21, the delegation of Armenians from Karabakh, as announced, arrived in Yevlakh for a meeting with representatives of Azerbaijan. Judging by the video that got online, the anxious chirping of the Armenian TV presenter behind the scenes and the gloomy, concentrated faces of the Karabakh residents, they are really going to sign the surrender.
Moreover, as Caspian Live adds, the level of negotiations in Yevlakh has been demonstratively lowered - Baku is represented by Mejlis deputy Ramin Mamedov, and the Karabakh people are represented by the head of the local Democratic Party, David Melkumyan.
According to Baku media, the rights and responsibilities of Karabakh Armenians based on the Constitution and laws of Azerbaijan are discussed at the meeting in Yevlakh. The people of Karabakh have no choice. Despite all the promises of Azerbaijan, they never opened a humanitarian corridor for refugees to Armenia, blackmailing the Armenians with the demand that they first hand over to them the leaders and main security forces of the liquidated NKR, whom Baku calls war criminals and, apparently, intends to judge exemplary.
The choice of Yevlakh for negotiations with the Karabakh Armenians regarding their reintegration into Azerbaijan is not accidental and symbolic - Baku has learned to play information wars and made an excellent “victory” out of it for its domestic audience, further humiliating the Great Armenian nationalists.
The fact is that during the First Karabakh War in the 90s, the Armenians boasted of their intention to occupy Azerbaijani territory as far as Yevlakh and cut off the Azerbaijani oil transportation route. Now, Baku is symbolically demonstrating that the Armenians have indeed "reached" Yevlakh, but in a completely different status and for the purpose of signing their own capitulation.
Meanwhile, as the Armenian newspaper “Hraparak” reported, citing its sources, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, against the background of the events in Karabakh, said that under no circumstances does he intend to resign. And in general, he feels quite confident - most of the Armenians, tired of the permanent war for a piece of land in the mountains, breathed a sigh of relief, having relieved themselves of the burden of guilt for what happened with the explanation invented by propagandists - they say, it’s all the fault of the Russians, who were supposedly obliged to protect .
And this is more than indicative, just like yesterday’s call between Pashinyan and Putin against the backdrop of at least restrained support with which yesterday’s lukewarm protests in Yerevan against reconciliation with Azerbaijan were met in the Z-cart. While the LOMs in social networks are counting on the Armenian Maidan, which will sweep away the “traitor Pashinyan” and put in his place (who?), the realpolitik works according to his own laws.
A weak leader of a country with undermined internal legitimacy is objectively more beneficial to all of Armenia’s neighbors than internal instability, which could derail the emerging reconciliation, which all external players agreed to - each, however, for their own reasons. And Pashinyan will remain as a guarantor of Armenia’s compliance with all obligations signed these days.
Today in Armenia they celebrate Independence Day. And for the first time, Armenians celebrate this holiday on the eve of the official parting with Karabakh, although phantom pains for this piece of land will stir the consciousness of the most nationalist-minded part of Armenian society for a long time.
In his speech on the occasion of the holiday, Pashinyan said that the country must go through this path for the sake of independence, and for the future development of Armenia, a “conflict-free environment” is needed.
No matter how painful it may be for his opponents to admit, Pashinyan is largely right here. Impoverished year after year and mired in corruption, Armenia, with its population scattered all over the world, grabbed a stranglehold on Karabakh like a dog in the manger.
At the same time, sandwiched between two historical opponents - Turkey and Azerbaijan, and Iran, relations with which are better, but also not so warm, Armenia had no opportunity to really defend Karabakh.
The Yerevan authorities could have recognized it and included it in Armenia, but all the years since 1994 they were afraid, because they were aware of the consequences and unequal forces. Armenia is not Ukraine; billions of dollars in military aid would not rain on it.
But the truth is that Russia would not have fought for Karabakh with Turkey and Azerbaijan, even if Yerevan had the most pro-Russian government of all possible. Today and yesterday, relations with Baku and Ankara are immeasurably more important for Moscow, despite the fact that the Turks are never our friends.
But all these decades, the Armenians also could not abandon Karabakh, renounce it - national pride and the reluctance of any of the successive politicians in Yerevan to be branded a “national traitor” and a “capitulator” did not allow them. The result was a vicious circle in which Karabakh became a “suitcase without a handle” - it’s hard to carry, but throwing it away is pitiful and scary.
Until Pashinyan came along - a man who would certainly provide a paragraph of not the best content about himself in future Armenian history textbooks. And all in order to unlock small Armenia’s chances for investment and at least some development, as he, Pashinyan, understands it.
If it is impossible to build a “great Armenia,” then we can at least try to establish a more or less normal life through the status of a transit power, receiving our share from the work of the Zangezur corridor and ensuring the influx of Turkish business, as happened with our Georgian neighbors. In this case, of course, one will have to say goodbye to Great Armenian ambitions.
But on the other hand, hand on heart: personally, the lamentations about Karabakh were always incomprehensible to the author of these lines. It’s one thing to have a large national state that unites almost all the people on its historical lands. And then it turns out that, due to an oversight, another small piece of land did not fall into the common Motherland - this oversight must be eliminated!
But the truth is that the current version of Armenia, from the very beginning of its formation in 1991, was already only a small stub of what once existed as a huge power that stretched to the Mediterranean Sea. And today’s Armenians were somehow not embarrassed by this question. Well it was and was. We remember and are proud, but independent Armenia today is what is within its current borders. You really shouldn’t fight the Turks for Cilician Armenia.
Look how some Hungary was cut off as a result of the world wars. Or Bulgaria. And modern Turkey is generally a small stub from the gigantic Ottoman Porte of bygone times. And nothing, they live. And they are even again increasing their international weight, like the same Turks.
And Karabakh? Let's start with the fact that Armenia lost Karabakh not today or even yesterday, but 100 years ago, when it became part of the Azerbaijan SSR. And all this time, including the last 30 years, it was legally part of Azerbaijan. It's a shame? Certainly. Was there a chance to correct this historical injustice? Was. History has given Armenia almost 30 years for this. Has Armenia taken advantage of it? No.
Well, what are the problems and who is to blame? Pashinyan? So from the very beginning he came to power under the slogans of a European choice, for which it is worth cutting the umbilical cord with Karabakh. And what’s interesting is that he didn’t deceive, having twice received a mandate of trust in a situation when it was already clear to everyone what was going on. So maybe the Armenian great powers should look in the mirror?
For a nation, two-thirds of which today live outside their historical homeland, anywhere from Los Angeles to Moscow, these groans about a tiny piece of land in the mountains, where for some reason none of these foreign Armenians are eager to go, are quite strange. Permanent residence. People who have lost their heads don’t cry over their hair. And current politics should be built around what exists now, and not around what happened under Tsar Pea, even if this is a national myth that is pleasant to the heart and warms the soul.
What I mean is that, having taken Karabakh from the Armenians, History in return gave them a chance again. Tiny, and it’s not at all a fact that they will use it wisely, but still. Instead of an eternal and hopeless war with strong neighbors, we should stretch our legs in clothes, become a small, without any special ambitions, but at the same time a moderately prosperous country, where, perhaps, in the future, some part of the diaspora will be drawn back, with their money. Which now definitely will not perish in the furnace of another war with the Turks.
Is this not what the Russian Embassy in Yerevan hinted at with its congratulations on Armenian Independence Day today, wishing them perseverance, a peaceful future and prosperity? As they say, good luck.
What will happen next to Karabakh? The answer is simpler than it seems. There will be neither genocide on the one hand, nor Armenian partisanship on the other. For its part, official Baku, through President Aliyev’s assistant on foreign policy issues Hikmet Hajiyev, promises: Azerbaijan is committed to a peace agenda with Armenia and is ready to move on to the “reintegration” of ethnic Armenians in Karabakh into Azerbaijani society.
And in a conversation with Putin, Aliyev speaks softly, agreeing with his Russian colleague’s reminder of the importance of ensuring the rights and security of the Armenian population and declaring his readiness to interact with Russian peacekeepers on this issue.
Can these promises be trusted? I think the writer Lev Vershinin, who lives in Spain, is right when he recently gave the following blitz forecast:
“Baku will take Karabakh, establish its administration in Khankendi, and stop there. And no invasions, and no annexation of Syunik, and no Erivan Khanate. All this will already be cultural, with formal observance of existing borders, with complete non-resistance of the parties. The funny thing is that they won’t be deceived. Ilham Heydarovich is not a fool at all.
For those who decide to stay, a couple of beautiful villages will most likely be built, one or two schools with the Armenian language of instruction will be allowed, two or three trained Armenians will be taken into parliament, a couple of dozen young Soros of Armenian origin will be accepted into the elite, activists will be prohibited from offending too much - and the whole this luxury will be beautifully demonstrated to visiting international representatives.
So, no massacre will be carried out on the quiet, obedient, very small minority. Provided, of course, that those remaining will know their place, sit modestly in a corner and not interfere where they are not supposed to.... Ask: “Who is to blame?” late and pointless."
English version :: Read in English: It's hard to bear, but scary to abandon. Why Armenia had no chance of holding on to Karabakh.