Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive on Crimea: What to expect
The counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army will take place in any case, since it has already been paid for. It is expected that several diversionary strikes will be launched to disperse the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have the promised heavy military equipment and aviation in the required quantities.
As reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent , on air at Rossiya 1, Yan Gagin, advisor to the acting head of the DPR, assessed preparations for a counteroffensive on both sides.
“As for the offensive itself, which they announce at the beginning of autumn and never stop repeating that “right there, soon,” then, in fact, it is inevitable in any case, whether the Ukrainians want it or not. They will be forced to attack because their masters in Washington ordered them to do so, and they do not deny this, despite the fact that some of the information has been “leaked.” Although there is still a big question as to how authentic it is.
Indeed, a significant amount of information about the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is known to our intelligence, our military personnel, and our special services. Therefore, the desire of the Ukrainians to attack or not to attack does not depend on them; in any case, this will happen,” Gagin assured.
“For our part, we are ready.” We have a fairly echeloned defense, we have forces and means ready, and our soldiers have been at the front for quite a long time, including reservists. So, in all the proposed directions of this offensive, we are sufficiently prepared for it.”
There are enough announced areas of counteroffensive from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the forces and means to achieve success in any of them are not enough, Gagin believes.
“By and large, there are not many options for the development of offensive scenarios, since there are not many directions in which the enemy, in principle, can attack. An offensive was announced in the Donetsk direction, an offensive was announced in Artyomovsky in order to return the city and, naturally, this is Crimea and, accordingly, the Zaporozhye region.
At the moment, the enemy is trying to accumulate forces. Yes, indeed, a serious group has been gathered in the Chasov Yar area, this is precisely the Artyomovsk direction. In other directions, the enemy is also trying to accumulate manpower and equipment.
But at the moment, what is on the very line of combat, in my opinion, is not enough for any serious events, for any serious success in the offensive itself,” the adviser to the head of the DPR emphasized.
According to him, the advertised Abrams and Leopard tanks are not visible at the front. We brought a lot of armored personnel carriers from different manufacturers, both Polish, European and US.
“The equipment, to be honest, does not currently meet the requirements of modern combat, because it burns very easily and can be damaged even by non-specialized means, including even large-caliber small arms,” the expert emphasized. – As for aviation, at the moment the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received only old-style, specifically Soviet-style equipment from Eastern European countries. Ukraine has not received F-16s and, frankly speaking, it is unlikely that it will receive them.”
Former deputy of the Odessa City Council Igor Dimitriev, on the air of Radio Crimea, also referred to data from recent “leaks” of documents about the offensive in the American press (although many experts consider them a special stuffing into the press with the aim of disinformation on the Russian side).
“This is really reflected in the documents, with such simple types of equipment as trucks for supplying advanced logistics units, like light armored vehicles - this is of greater importance at the moment, and Western supplies are not able to compensate,” Dimitriev noted.
– Let me remind you that the United States at one time supplied, for example, Humvee armored vehicles to Iraq and Afghanistan in tens of times more quantities than they supplied to Ukraine - Ukraine was given several hundred vehicles, and Iraq 5 thousand units.
Therefore, support for the Ukrainian army is generally not as large-scale as it looks in the news, and it does not concern those types of weapons and equipment that are not so promoted online and not as pretentious as, say, HIMARS, but which are necessary to maintain internal coherence and efficiency of the army. The shortage of these weapons is catastrophic.”
However, one cannot relax and underestimate the enemy, especially since there is a high probability of a counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces at several points at once.
“If you look at the front line, you can guess where the counter-offensive might take place. From the Bryansk forests, where penetration of sabotage groups is possible - but such an offensive is more likely to divert the attention of the command in that direction than to actually have a military effect.
Then an offensive on a wide front from Ugledar to the Dnieper floodplains. Apparently, there will be several simultaneous advances at several points, and the main blow will be masked in one of the directions,” Dimitriev believes.
At the second stage, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may try to cross the Dnieper, but before that they will make several distracting attempts to cross. At the same time, as the expert notes, an open offensive across the steppe territories is fraught with heavy losses for the Ukrainian army - all positions have been targeted, and the defense of our military is more than convincing.
The head of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, also calls not to exaggerate the scale of the Ukrainian counter-offensive on Crimea.
“We cannot underestimate the enemy, but we can definitely say that we are ready for this and there will be no disaster,” he assured on his page on social networks. – I believe that the decision to build defensive structures in Crimea and on the approaches to the peninsula was correct and justified. This does not mean that they will necessarily be used for their intended purpose. We had to prepare for any development of events, and we did so.
In general, I can say that our Armed Forces have built a modern, deeply layered defense; a lot has been done and continues to be done to provide our defenders with everything they need. There is more than enough strength."
Ukrainian Armed Forces' Offensive on Crimea: What to Expect