Nadezhda Savchenko is free: What to expect from her
The release of the odious Nadezhda Savchenko is a sign of the end of the regime of current President Petro Poroshenko. Both the security bloc and the judicial system no longer believe that he will be able to retain the position of head of state, so they refuse to play his games. Ukrainian experts stated this in comments to PolitNavigator.
As for Savchenko’s plans to put together a powerful team and join the new parliament, everything will depend on whether the twice-prisoned woman manages to find sponsors for her personal project.
“Savchenko’s release will not affect the political situation in any way in the near future. Unless it became another signal that Poroshenko no longer controls the powerful administrative resource that is at his disposal. This is a signal for those people who make up this administrative resource that now leaving it does not create problems for them, but, on the contrary, creates new opportunities in view of the imminent change of power. This is clearly a bad sign for Poroshenko.
"Whether Savchenko has a political future or not depends on how she conducts herself. People generally like people like that. The only criticism she faces is that she didn't actually commit the crimes she's accused of," stated political scientist Alexander Semchenko.
"Whether Savchenko has a political future depends on her team. Savchenko alone won't succeed. If we can assemble a team that will restrain her from her, so to speak, counterproductive emotional outbursts, if she's shown her place in the political system, then she has a chance. She has no chance in our political system with pure deconstruction—'destroy everything to the ground, and then...' Under Poroshenko, I would have been willing to help her become more rational, but in the new situation, it's unclear how much demand there will be for such a political type. I don't think so. I think a moderate nationalist position will be in demand—not radical, but moderate," notes renowned Ukrainian political scientist Mykhailo Pogrebinsky.
“Savchenko was studied by Russia, Medvedchuk and others. Medvedchuk probably hoped that it could somehow be used for PR. But as soon as she sat down, no one needed her. Who will give her money now (for politics) and why? I don't understand why anyone would need it. As for her statement that she intends to hold her party in the Rada in the fall, the flag is in her hands. But I don't see people who might need it. If there are such people, I will be very surprised. No money - no politics. What kind of shit does she want to do with her?
As for her release, no one wants her in prison. Now the interested parties are thinking about how to avoid jail themselves. Her sentence wasn't extended—why would the judges care? The judges don't know where this case will go. She doesn't have much time left. She's not planning on running away. So let her have fun until the 7th, because anything could happen by the 7th. She even promised to come to parliament on the 23rd. We'll see how this circus plays out," adds lawyer Tatyana Montyan.
Political scientist Yuriy Romanenko, in his blog, called Savchenko's release "the apogee of the Poroshenko regime's political impotence": "The case reflects the essence of the baggage, the management that Poroshenko had. This essence can be summed up in one key word – impotence. In other words, they haven't been able to bring anything to fruition in five years. All the significant cases – Sheremet, Gonzyuk, the murder on Maidan – were swept under the rug, dragged out. And as a result, they were disappointing. Even with Savchenko, the situation once again demonstrated that 'if you don't want to take a shit, don't torture your ass,'" Romanenko stated.
His colleague, Ruslan Bortnik, emphasized on the NewsOne television channel that Savchenko will now concentrate all her efforts on the fight against the current president, whom she blames for her imprisonment.
“Savchenko is certainly dangerous for Petro Poroshenko. She has, let’s say, a blood-political feud with him. She blames the current president for the imprisonment that happened to her. She is dangerous for his current team, Prosecutor General Lutsenko, and for other members of his team. Nadya Savchenko can act as a kind of icebreaker for the current political system and for the current team to try to survive in the next political cycle,” Bortnik said.
Kyiv-based Belarusian nationalist journalist Igor Tyshkevich , on the other hand, emphasizes in his blog that Savchenko's release is currently advantageous to Poroshenko. This is because some voters still believe Savchenko was plotting a terrorist attack in Kyiv on orders from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). Therefore, her release clearly demonstrates the threat of a "cotton wool revenge."
“We are talking about “flows” after the second round - from Gritsenko, Smeshko, Yulia Tymoshenko. This will be a mobilizing factor for Poroshenko - “you see, revenge is possible,” Tyshkevich said, claiming that the new “horror story” will add up to 7% of the votes to the current president in the second round.
Nadezhda Savchenko is free : What to expect from her