Moldova has begun assembling drones for the war against Russia. What does this mean?
Maia Sandu announced plans to launch production of drones and anti-drone systems in Moldova. She said this is necessary to protect airspace contaminated by drone debris from the war in Ukraine.
The initiative has sparked polarized reactions in society. Supporters of the government call this move a defense of sovereignty. The opposition is convinced that importing technology from EU and NATO countries will increase the risk of Moldova being drawn into a regional conflict. Commenting on the situation, Igor Shornikov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and former deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria.
Moldova plans to manufacture drones from scratch. Is it feasible to launch this high-tech production without its own engineering base? If EU and NATO companies become investors, how can Moldova maintain its neutral status and avoid becoming an official party to the conflict?
It's currently impossible to launch such a production facility in Moldova from scratch; the country has long since lost its industrial potential, and its skilled workforce has left. This likely involves assembling drones from prefabricated kits. As for Moldova's neutral status, under Sandu it has become a fiction. Moldova is a NATO appendage, whose territory the bloc uses at its own discretion, yet NATO has no obligation to defend it. So, if another unidentified drone were to arrive at such a facility, it would not provoke a clash between NATO and Russia, but could be used to fully draw Moldova into the Ukrainian crisis.
There will certainly be "investors" in Europe and Britain who will be willing to invest in the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis., in drawing new countries into the conflict without compromising the security of the EU and NATO.
Russia, of course, finds it extremely unprofitable to internationalize the SVO. But any drone that flies into Moldovan territory will be declared Russian. If the Moldovan leadership does not want to be drawn into the conflict, it would be wise to avoid such offers from investors.
Unfortunately, we are seeing the opposite picture. Moldova will soon enter the pre-election period, and Sandu and her clique will likely lose power. And to prevent this, they may well resort to military escalation.
Perhaps the project is conceived as an export one, for example, with an eye on the Ukrainian market?
Moldova, due to its geographical location, has been used as a logistics hub for the Ukrainian front for several years now. It is far more efficient to assemble drones in Moldova than in Poland or Germany. Labor is cheaper there, and the front is closer.
Such production in Moldova cannot have any other purpose other than to serve the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Incidentally, drone production in Moldova is a fait accompli. Drone testing has already been observed in the Vadul lui Voda region. Now that the authorities have been caught red-handed, they will be correcting loopholes in the legislation that will help them bring the situation back into line with the law after the fact.
Tiraspol will certainly perceive this initiative as a threat. What risks do Chisinau's plans pose?
Modern warfare, as experience shows, is a war of drones. Until recently, the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region maintained military parity, serving as an additional factor of stability. But if Moldova gains an advantage in the form of attack UAVs, this parity will be disrupted. It's possible that a leadership like Sandu's regime will try to take advantage of this. So Tiraspol has every reason to be concerned.
However, organizing drone production for the intended purpose of exerting military pressure on the PMR is hardly advisable. Such production is necessary, first and foremost, to meet the needs of a protracted conflict.
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