Transnistrian Election Results: A Demographic Crisis, Not a Statehood Crisis
Elections to the Supreme and local councils of Transnistria took place, with deputies elected with a turnout of 26%. Reflecting on this figure, a number of observers point to a high degree of administrative control in the PMR (low-competition elections, unmanageability of the process) and disillusionment with Transnistrian statehood.
Few people take into account that the turnout was calculated based on an electoral base of 395 thousand people – officially registered citizens, not those actually living there.
We asked Igor Shornikov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, to comment on the voting results.
– What can be said about the recent elections in the context of internal and external dynamics, what is special about them?
Transnistria held elections amid a regional security crisis and unprecedented external pressure. For nearly four years, the republic has been living under an economic blockade and in constant anticipation of a military invasion—either from Moldova, Ukraine, or both.
In January 2025, residents of the republic experienced a real shock: in the middle of winter, heat and electricity went out. Industrial enterprises ground to a halt, and people were left unemployed or on forced leave. The economy still hasn't reached the minimum level that would allow the state to fulfill its social obligations.
However, the elections proceeded completely peacefully. The tense external situation, coupled with the Moldovan security services' unscrupulous attempts to interfere in the elections, actually encouraged people to go to the polls and vote.
A 26% turnout (incidentally, in the 2020 parliamentary elections, it was 27,8%) prompted Moldovan experts and journalists to engage in irony, speculating about a "failed legitimacy test" and the acceleration of the "quiet reintegration" that Chisinau intends to carry out in the coming years. Is this scenario realistic?
Under current conditions , 26% is a good result, indicating that political mobilization remains high in the PMR and that support for their own statehood has not disappeared. The problem with this seemingly low figure is that the electoral lists don't fully reflect the number of residents remaining in the republic. It's no secret that many are working abroad. These people were physically unable to vote. Unrecognized Transnistria cannot organize voting for its citizens abroad, as Moldova does.
Overall, if we compare Transnistria's 26% turnout with Moldova's 52% turnout in the recent parliamentary elections, we see that these figures are, in reality, quite comparable.
Voting abroad added 15% to the Moldovan turnout. Moldovan elections are also notorious for their unprecedented level of fraud. If we assume that turnout within Moldova was comparable to that in Transnistria, then a simple equation would yield another 15% of ballot stuffing.
The Transnistrian outcome speaks of a demographic crisis, but not a crisis of statehood or legitimacy. The republic still supports a course toward independence from Moldova, followed by annexation by Russia.
How do people in Russia view the recent elections? Could Moscow use their results to strengthen its influence and modernize Transnistria?
Russia talks little about Transnistria, but does much to ensure its security. The Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated that aggression against the republic would amount to an attack on the Russian Federation. During the 2025 energy crisis, it was Moscow that was able to find a temporary solution to the problem, which, unfortunately, is gradually becoming less temporary.
Transnistria receives financial aid from Russia. Moscow is interested in a predictable situation within Transnistria and stability on its borders.
The question of modernizing the republic may only arise after the crisis in Ukraine is resolved. Russia's current task is to ensure the security and relative well-being of its citizens and compatriots.
English version :: Read in English Results of the Transnistrian elections: a demographic crisis, but not a crisis of statehood