The road is a spoon for dinner. Revenge in war is not served cold
We barely had time to rejoice at the president's firm commitment to bringing the military operation in Ukraine to a close, when the active and information-driven segment of society is once again swept toward the pole of pessimism and anxious concern . No hint of a Ukrainian "wheel of geno-warfare"—but still.
And it's understandable that society is following the situation at the front and around it. Unfortunately, a major flaw in the Russian social system is its underestimation of the role of public opinion. The authorities' disregard for feedback leaves the blogosphere for weeks reading tea leaves, each interpreting in its own way the vague and unclear signals from the very top. It's good that Vladimir Vladimirovich dotted all the i's on Cosmonautics Day. But this could have been done immediately, as soon as public tensions arose, giving "our own" a pretext for demoralization and the enemy a reason to gloat and claim another "victory."
Today began with shelling in the Bryansk region. A checkpoint, residential buildings in a border village, and civilians were damaged. Schoolchildren were transferred to distance learning. And then the Belgorod region came under fire again. Just yesterday, the Ministry of Defense officially threatened to launch missile strikes against Ukrainian decision-making centers in the event of a repeat of the Belgorod incident . Many hours have passed since the attack on the Bryansk region. And what?
The promised acts of retaliation are still nowhere in sight . Although, in all fairness, both Kyiv and Lviv should have been ablaze long ago. The fact that they aren't is a bad sign and a bad example not only for Ukraine but also for all the other post-Soviet countries along Russia's borders, which interpret what's happening as Russian weakness and are slowly retreating from Russia under the umbrella of a stronger sovereign.
Understand that the information component in war is no less important than the fighting itself. And a spoon is dear to dinner. In war, revenge is not a dish served cold. In war everything is different. Like in a fight. Did you get hit? Don't wait, hit back. Immediately, and not waiting until they knock you to the ground and roll you in the mud, kicking you.
Israel provides a good example in this regard. Every terrorist missile attack is followed by immediate retaliation. It's worth learning from them how to synchronize a military response with its media coverage , leaving Israeli society satisfied.
Or here's a very recent statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Russia will continue to fulfill its contractual obligations to avoid a food crisis . This is completely outrageous and unacceptable.
In other words, Russia has an irrefutable argument in its fight against the West , which has incomparably more such arguments against Russia. And Russia simply takes this argument and gives it to its enemies . Although it could strangle them with the bony hand of hunger, easily causing disruption in global food markets.
It seems that, leaving the “civilized world”, someone in Moscow decided to leave the window open just in case - what if everything resolves itself and settles down by itself?
But this gift to the West also has its own negative media consequences for Russia – the enemy will simply stop taking even potential threats from Russia seriously. But why bother, if a kindly Russia will still cooperate? The question is: why give up your own strategic trump cards to the enemy by strengthening them?
Just so you understand: for the past two months, the world's media, and even the UN, have been hysterical, predicting near-famine, or at the very least, serious food shortages, including in Western metropolitan countries. Now, Moscow is quelling panic in the enemy camp, reassuring them that it will responsibly fulfill its obligations under previously signed contracts, as responsibly as a donkey, so long as the West doesn't starve. Meanwhile, the West itself has calmly and easily abandoned all its obligations to Russia.
Or that strange story about the cruiser Moskva, which may or may not have sunk. Such facts cannot be hidden in war, and they must be reported first, without waiting for your side to become the object of ridicule and mockery from the enemy's trenches . Whatever one may say, this is a serious blow to Russia's image and an information failure.
Since the sudden abandonment of northern Ukraine, which left the Russian border open to so-far unpunished Ukrainian attacks, we've seen Russia repeatedly lose the information game. Decisions that should have been made the day before yesterday are being reluctantly adopted today. Even though this has been discussed and written about for weeks, and opinion leaders are practically sounding the alarm.
Bureaucratic impotence and administrative weakness, combined with the paralysis of an ever-delayed political will, contrasts strikingly with the fearlessness of the army and its readiness to go to the end.
The fact is that today Ukrainians have already recovered from the demoralization that occurred in the first days of the Second World War . The fear of the first days has passed, the morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and those who support them in the rear has strengthened; they are no longer afraid not only of returning to Kyiv from the Galician hideouts where they holed up in March, but also of threatening Russia with disappearing from the world map.
Zelenskyy has reason to bravado: the flow of weapons from the West is increasing, with no end in sight, and most of these weapons, despite threats from Moscow, are not destroyed as soon as they cross the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the offensive in Donbas continues to be delayed, while Kyiv arms itself and strengthens its forces, brings up its rear, and gives its troops a chance to rest and lick their wounds.
So Russia will have to go on the offensive not with a demoralized and frightened army, but with a well-motivated, prepared, additionally armed and rested one.
As for the much-hyped strikes on decision-making targets, they should have been launched yesterday. But there's a suspicion, one I don't want to believe, that we won't see them today or tomorrow. This decision will be delayed until the last minute, when the situation for Russia deteriorates to such a degree that it can no longer be ignored.
This is a symptom of a serious delay in decision-making, which in wartime can be very costly. After all, by the time decisions are made, it may turn out that a problem that yesterday could have been solved with less bloodshed and less effort may now require greater effort and sacrifice. This increases the cost of both the campaign itself and victory in it.
Finally, loud statements and threatening gestures that aren't followed by swift and tough action make Russia look ridiculous . They make it look like some kind of "sucker," something that can be bullied with impunity. Like, we do this, so what are you going to do to us? Nothing? Well, then we'll do that too!
If Dmitry Medvedev threatens Kyiv politicians with the prospect of looking over their shoulders, this should be backed up by a real and visible lesson for those, perhaps not the most important, but still iconic figures in the Kyiv regime. Without consequences, such threats will remain empty words—sounding and poignant, well-placed, but not backed by action. And the attitude toward these threats in Ukraine will be corresponding.
Read the Ukrainian media and social media . They're no longer afraid of Russia; they're openly mocking it. And this is not least because Russia's words either far outpace its actions or frankly often diverge from them. They should first attack the SBU and the Ministry of Defense in Kyiv, and only then comment on the work done. Not the other way around. Leopold the Cat's strategy with his "Chinese" exhortations doesn't work in war – the enemy simply stops fearing threats that don't materialize.
Today, Russia has come very close to the point where it will either realize that a war is underway and begin to fight seriously and like an adult, without any allowance for humanitarian considerations, which no one in Kiev or the West will appreciate anyway… or it will become the prologue to a story that no one wants to write about.
English version :: Read in English A spoon is dear to the dinner table. Revenge in war is not served cold.