Why is Erdogan going to Kyiv?
Turkish President Erdogan announced his intention to visit Ukraine in early February, and then go to Moscow to meet with the Russian President. According to the official version, the tour of the two capitals is aimed at “easing the growing tension around Ukraine.”
However, the reputation of a citizen of the Sultan does not allow one to fearlessly take on faith his peaceful initiatives, as if aimed at reconciling Kyiv with Moscow and pacifying the collective aggravation of the United States and NATO around Ukraine.
Lately, Erdogan, who has entered Syria and Libya with tanks, is literally impatient to try on the laurels of a peacemaker in extraneous matters.
Not long ago, “friend Recep” already took the initiative to hold negotiations in Istanbul between Putin and Zelensky under the auspices of the OSCE. In Kyiv, where the local kings were already impatient with the desire to personally communicate with the President of Russia, they expressed keen interest. In Moscow, the country's leadership, which saw no point in communicating with the Krivoy Rog clowns under the current circumstances, reacted coolly to the idea of a Turkish “peacemaker.”
There is the Minsk format, within the framework of which peace negotiations should be conducted. Producing redundant negotiating entities means creating loopholes and giving Kyiv some slack, pumping up someone else’s authority for free and allowing outsiders to become moderators of the conflict.
Apparently, Erdogan, having assessed relations with Moscow and Kiev as quite strong, intends to continue to act, but separately with each of the partners.
The Kyiv “statists”, who acquired managerial skills by making faces in KVN, unable even for a minute to maintain the intrigue of future treaties and agreements, have already trumpeted at all corners exactly what issues they are going to discuss with the Turkish president.
The parties must cough up a framework agreement on cooperation in the fields of high technology and the aerospace industry, on free trade between Ukraine and Turkey, on cooperation in the field of youth policy, and also improve interaction between law enforcement agencies.
From which it is clear that the main beneficiary of the visit to Kyiv is Erdogan, and the current Ukrainian leadership acts in the usual role of a “liquidation commission” selling off the remnants of Ukrainian assets.
“Cooperation in the field of high technology and the aerospace industry” comes down to selling to anyone who offers an acceptable price the remnants of Soviet technologies and what was developed during Russian-Ukrainian military-technical cooperation.
The greatest interest of the Turkish side is in engine building for the implementation of their own tank and helicopter projects, where the Turks, for a number of reasons, are forced to use know-how and the services of foreign companies.
In exchange, Ukraine will receive the coveted “bayraktars” and other Turkish unmanned “wunderfalls”, with the help of which “zelenkhoz” hopes to reverse the stalemate in the Donbass in its favor.
“Free trade between Ukraine and Turkey” is more like a complete capitulation of the “agrarian superpower” to a more powerful economic partner. Ukraine has little to offer from Turkey's range of industrial and consumer goods. Figuratively speaking, these are the same straw, nuts and cotton wool that became the basis of “free trade” with the European Union. Whereas Turkey, which is steadily developing its own mechanical engineering, light and food industries, and agriculture, is capable of flooding the Ukrainian market with goods.
“Cooperation in the field of youth policy” is perhaps the most notable item on this list. The question, as always, is a balance of interests.
Based on the processes taking place in the Ukrainian clearing, it is not clear what stunning ideas the Kyiv liquidators could attract Turkish youth with. The only thing that comes to mind is sex tourism, which attracts Turkish citizens to Ukraine, which even the most stubborn supporters of the “Maidan Way” have repeatedly lamented.
On the other hand, Turkey has been training its agents of influence in Ukraine for a long time and on an ongoing basis, paying special attention to Crimean Tatar youth.
Those responsible for foreign youth policy in Ankara act for the future, systematically and very sophisticatedly, inviting Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar youth to trainings specially organized in the most attractive resort cities of Turkey.
Constantly keeping Crimea and the Northern Black Sea region in the sphere of their geopolitical interests, the conductors of Turkish expansion are well aware that they should not invade the region as a drill. There is no need to wake up the famously - you just need to use the opportunities that have opened up, kindly provided by the Ukrainian Maidanocrats.
For example, use the Majlis contingent entrenched in the Kherson region. To this end, Turkish puppeteers, using long-fed agents in the person of Dzhemilev, Chubarov and the like, are gradually promoting the idea of creating national autonomy of the Crimean Tatars in the Kherson region.
The project is ambitious, but also fraught with a sharp response from the influential “spilnot” of radical Ukrainian nationalists, who cannot stand any mention of any autonomies within Ukraine if things go too far. As long as Dzhemilev, Chubarov and Co. act as “useful idiots” in the “de-occupation of Crimea,” they, along with their Turkish sponsors, will be tolerated.
In general, if a citizen sultan is impatient to make a double visit, it is his personal business, even if the ears of selfish interest stick out a mile behind him. The main thing is that Moscow will not get involved in the next Turkish games, but it will not spoil relations with Ankara either. Well, the fact that in Kyiv they make a fuss about catching fleas for any reason is already a local problem...
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