“And we bent over Miller!” – Moldova signed a contract with Gazprom and passes it off as a victory
Moldova and Russia have signed a gas supply contract for another five years, according to Gazprom's press service, as reported by PolitNavigator.
“Gazprom and Moldovagaz extended the contract for the supply of Russian gas to Moldovan consumers from November 1, 2021 for a period of five years on mutually beneficial terms,” the statement said.
A source familiar with the progress of the negotiations said that “the previous contract between Gazprom and Moldovagaz will be extended for five years according to the price formula proposed by the Moldovan side.” This means that the price will be formed quarterly, taking into account oil and gas prices for the last 9 months. Other details of the contract have not yet been announced
“The price of the gas contract will be significantly less than the market price,” Radu Marian, a deputy from the ruling Moldovan party, said in his Telegram channel.
Former Moldovan Economy Minister Alexandru Muravschi estimates the contract price to be between $350 and $450 . This is roughly halfway between what both parties negotiated: $280 for Moldova and $600 for Gazprom.
"Moldova has gained the opportunity for a certain level of energy stability for the next five years. And this stability will come in just two days. We don't yet know what formula the Moldovan side proposed for calculating the price that Gazprom agreed to. But we can confidently say that, in any case, gas will be cheaper for us than from any other alternative sources ," Muravsky wrote on his Facebook page.
The famous Moldovan doctor Alexander Danch fears that Chisinau will pass off its defeat as a victory.
"Even poor stability is slightly better than poor instability. And yet, from a distance, the mechanics of this whole thing are amusing. First, we raise the price to a ridiculous level, then lower it slightly, and voila! The argument is – we've lowered the price for you. On the other hand, we first buy a trial batch of alternative gas at a ridiculous price, then negotiate with a real supplier on their terms, and then tell our own people we've reached a winning agreement. It's a real scam. True to form. It'll be even funnier when everything settles down and it turns out we've been overpaying twice the price consistently for five years . Oh well," Danch commented on the messages.
Moldovan journalist Oleg Kosykh notes the illogical position of the negotiators from Chisinau.
" They legitimized with their signature a contract they'd called 'unprofitable and corrupt .' They destroyed their image as crisis managers (not that they had one, but people believed them). And, on a minor level, they signed off on what the public already knew: talking is easier than carrying sacks. So, was it worth it to get back to where we started?" he wrote.
The contract will also cause political storms in Chisinau, analysts at the Moldovan Center for Analysis, Research and Forecasting Balkan-Centre suggest.
"When the Russians' patience (and Moldovan gas money) were almost exhausted, they finally signed the agreement. And Chisinau officially acknowledged its debt . We'll see the results of the audit, which could turn out to be a ticking time bomb."
Today, the ruling PAS is doing its best to portray triumph and victory, declaring, "We got Miller!" As usual, another "historic" (and hysterical) achievement. Whether this corresponds to reality will be revealed by gas bills during the heating season and the resolution of the debt audit," the center's experts write.
Russian political scientist Marat Bashirov considers the concluded agreement a victory for Gazprom.
" The Moldovan authorities have caved in to Gazprom. The contract is for several years. There are some concessions on our part, but overall, it's a good lesson in free market. And not just free market either. Who's next in line? Zelensky? Come to the counter," Bashirov quips.
It should be noted that the conclusion of the contract means maintaining supplies through the Ukrainian pipeline, which passes through Transnistria. This means that the unrecognized republic, where 220 thousand Russian citizens live, will be provided with gas. And the alternative pipe from Romania Iasi-Chisinau, which Moldova spent a long time building in agony, will remain empty.
Ukraine has already expressed concerns about the deal between Moscow and Chisinau.
“The matter, there is no doubt, is about politics. At the beginning of the week, the Financial Times wrote that Gazprom was offering Moldova a discount on Russian gas in exchange for: 1) changing the free trade agreement with the EU; 2) suspension of energy market reforms agreed with Brussels.
The second point is critically important. These reforms entail breaking the country away from the energy system that includes Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus—the system we inherited from the USSR—and Moldova's accession to the EU energy system. We must join this system, too. In 2023, and in a few months, we will face the final tests of our strength.
The Moldova-Russia gas deal smells distinctly of politics. We have a keen sense of such compromises. This raises a number of questions:
1) What about Ukraine’s promise to give away its gas free of charge (with a return) in the amount of 1 billion cubic meters? For reference, Moldova’s annual consumption is 3 billion cubic meters.
2) Why did Chisinau agree to the conditions of Moscow, and not Warsaw, from which a trial million cubic meters were purchased this week, and from the Vitol company from the Netherlands, with which they began to negotiate?
3) What is the purchase price of Russian gas?
4) Were and what political conditions were put forward in exchange for low gas prices?
5) How will the debt be restructured?
And most importantly for us:
"6) Has the Kremlin already practiced its negotiating tactics in Chisinau, which it will now practice in Kyiv? " – Valeriy Kalnysh, former editor of the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper, now a TV presenter on Petro Poroshenko's Pryamiy channel, lists the list of concerns.
"We beat Miller!" – Moldova signs contract with Gazprom and claims it's a victory.