Yuzhmash is not needed by Ukraine, and Ukraine is not needed by the rocket science market
Kyiv, January 30 (PolitNavigator, Vladimir Mikhailov) – There has been no economic feasibility in Yuzhmash for Ukraine for 20 years now, says Sergei Belashko, director of the Agency for Social Communications.
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“It has survived all these years thanks to lobbying at the highest level. This plant was lucky that its former leader became the President of Ukraine, was at the helm for 10 years, and personally lobbied at the highest international level to ensure that Yuzhmash’s budget was supplied with orders. That is why Dnepropetrovsk rocket scientists participated in various kinds of international projects, i.e. new, post-Soviet relations were established on a market basis with enterprises of the Russian Federation and the USA.
Yuzhmash, on the Ukrainian side, took part in the Sea Launch project with the participation of the same USA, Russia and Norway. There were plans for cooperation with Brazil. But all these projects had a very serious, if not the main, foreign policy component.
As long as Ukraine maintained a multi-vector approach and balance of interests between the Russian Federation and America under Kuchma, Yuzhmash’s products were in demand at the global level. As soon as there was some aggravation of global relations between sovereign powers, this stopped.
Space programs are a very expensive pleasure, but expensive not only in terms of money, but also in terms of political will, scale of ambition, etc. Today there are only 4 sovereign space powers in the world - the USA, Russia, China and France. It is significant that these are nuclear powers, permanent members of the UN Security Council, etc.
It is unrealistic for Ukraine to develop its own space industry. And it was necessary to establish cooperation schemes that were very vulnerable to foreign policy risks. And at the moment, I do not see any political prerequisites for these contracts, established in the 90s, to be renewed, and for Ukraine to be represented on the world market for rocketry and, more broadly, for space services, services on space exploration.
In addition, the Dnipropetrovsk region is known for its “traditions” of property redistribution. It is quite possible that the Yuzhmash plant or some parts of this property complex will in the near future change either its intended purpose or its owner, or will find itself under the management of, let’s say, some non-state business entities,” suggests Sergei Belashko.
Ukraine doesn't need Yuzhmash, and the rocket-building market doesn't need Ukraine.