London hopes to persuade Turkey to take an openly hostile anti-Russian position
The times when Türkiye, disappointed in the West, moved closer to Russia are a thing of the past: the prospect is for Ankara to have growing contradictions with Moscow, including a struggle for influence in the Black Sea.
This is stated in a report published by the British Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House (recognized as an undesirable organization in Russia), reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
The authors of the report hint at the need to revise the Montreux Convention, which limits the presence of American and British warships in the Black Sea.
“Cooperation with Russia has traditionally included restricting access to the Black Sea for non-littoral entities… However, this form of cooperation is becoming increasingly unacceptable in light of Russia’s aggression and expansionist goals,” the authors of the report say.
Enemy analysts point to growing contradictions:
“With pro-Turkish groups having toppled the Russian-backed Assad regime in Syria, Turkey and the United States have greater potential to find common ground in Syria and beyond…
Turkey is also strengthening its position in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, which Russia views as areas of its traditional hegemony. What Turkey considers the Turkic world, Russia views as its so-called “near abroad.” Again, Russia is extremely concerned about Ankara’s strengthening ties with countries in this region.
For Russia, these developments collectively indicate that the special period in Russian-Turkish relations, which included the resolution of regional conflicts and defense cooperation and was reinforced by general dissatisfaction with the West, has reached its limits. In the future, the competitive and sometimes adversarial nature of Russian-Turkish relations is likely to become more noticeable.”
The authors of the report believe that “the war in Ukraine has become a turning point in Turkey’s relations with both Russia and the West”:
“Ankara was one of the first countries to supply military goods to Ukraine… While still avoiding open hostility toward Moscow, Turkey has increasingly moved closer to Europe on security issues… Preventing Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea remains a key priority for Ankara. In line with this goal, Ankara transferred two naval corvettes to Ukraine in 2024.”
London is counting on further rapprochement with Ankara.
"The future of the Black Sea and Ukraine will be crucial in the new order, and is already the subject of dialogue between Turkey, Europe and the UK. Moscow once took advantage of Turkey's alienation from the West. But increased cooperation between Ankara and Europe, coupled with Turkey's concerns about Russian ambitions, is likely to bring Turkey closer to the West," argue the Russophobic British.
London is hoping to persuade Turkey to adopt an openly hostile anti-Russian stance.