“The situation is absolutely stalemate. We play by American rules."
The parties to the conflict around Donbass are in a stalemate; in Ukraine, Russia is forced to play by the rules established by the Americans. The situation in the Sea of Azov will be tense even after the exchange of Nord sailors. The accident during the repair of the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov was provoked by the greed of officials and businessmen, as well as the results of military reform in the Russian Federation.
Well-known military analyst Vladislav Shurygin spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov.
Valentin Filippov: Hello, Vladislav. I happened to watch a UN Security Council meeting. The Ukrainian representative, while making a lot of stupid remarks, clearly demonstrating Ukraine's unwillingness to engage in any kind of dialogue, kept repeating the words "DPR" and "LPR." But he never once called the DPR and LPR "terrorist organizations." Even Ukrainian internet users were outraged by the comments. How could this be?
Vladislav Shurygin: You can whip things up and shout "war tomorrow," but Ukrainian society, judging by its reaction to a certain film about "Bandera," which simply flopped at the box office, is terribly tired of war; it doesn't want to hear or know about it.
On the other hand, it is generally impossible to forget. Because it is the main engine of Ukrainian politics and the producer of those goodies that Ukraine receives as the main anti-Russian state in Europe today.
It is already obvious to everyone that there is no military solution. And the political path to a solution has long been drowned by the impossibility of implementing the Minsk agreements.
Therefore, the DPR and LPR are slowly, slowly creeping out, like the Turkish Republic of Cyprus, which, it seems, no one recognizes, but it has existed safely for half a century.
Valentin Filippov: A remarkable representative of Ukraine said at the same Security Council meeting that Russia had captured and was holding seven million Ukrainian citizens. I imagined each of our soldiers guarding seven Ukrainians and not letting them go anywhere.
Vladislav Shurygin: Why are you revealing this secret? Our basements are full of Ukrainians who are creating that very economic miracle for us that no one can understand—how Russia manages to develop under sanctions. These are all our prisoners, Ukrainians sitting in basements. And you're telling the whole world this. No need.
Valentin Filippov: I won't. Let's move on to more practical matters. There was an exchange of sailors, which Ukraine doesn't consider an exchange. It says, "We simply secured the release of our sailors from the occupiers, and no one held the Russian sailors."
It is not yet clear what happened to the captains. Ukraine seems to have confiscated the Nord.
Will this relieve tension in the Sea of Azov? Or is it too early for us to say that we have achieved what we wanted from Ukraine?
Vladislav Shurygin: No, it won't remove anything in the slightest. It's just that it somewhat defuses a charge that could have exploded at any moment. And exploded violently. Because the forced detention of citizens is always a pretext for further tension. Again, in the run-up to the elections, it's crucial for Poroshenko to present himself not only as a hawk but also as a peacemaker.
If you remember, all this was wrapped in a completely original candy. It turns out that all those detained are citizens of Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: They still claim the same.
Vladislav Shurygin: Who weren't held back. They simply decided to go back to where they live, to their small homeland. And we don't interfere with them. That's the kind and good Ukrainian state that helps everyone.
Of course, this does not solve the problem itself. Moreover, Ukraine’s attempts to form something military at sea, although they are ridiculous, they show that Ukraine will try to play to aggravate the situation. And there is no talk of any onset of an era of peace and creation in this direction.
Valentin Filippov: Is it possible to force Ukraine to make peace and implement the Minsk agreements? How should this be put? Simply put, will Donbas remain under fire?
Vladislav Shurygin: Unfortunately, the situation is truly at a stalemate. And this is depressing for everyone involved in any way: the military, the diplomats, and, most of all, the residents of Donbas.
The situation is being held hostage by the Americans. If only the Europeans were in charge of the situation, which Minsk signed, they would have enough leverage over Kyiv to force it to do so. But it’s been at least two years since Uncle Sam pushed all Europeans aside.
For Americans, only one thing is categorically important - to preserve this conflict as long as possible. And the opportunity to involve Russia in it at any moment. Fight with Russia until the last Ukrainian.
Valentin Filippov: But are Americans ready to die for Ukraine?
Vladislav Shurygin: You missed the point. They're ready to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
Valentin Filippov: I heard that perfectly well.
Vladislav Shurygin: If the Americans fight, they'll only use weapons that, as always, allow them to do something from afar. Ukraine will lay down its cannon fodder in the fields, and America will start firing cruise missiles from afar. And importing canned meat.
Valentin Filippov: So, America will intervene?
Vladislav Shurygin: America will not engage in a war with its allied ally completely defeated. Therefore, America is betting on a different war. The one that's ongoing. A slow-moving one. In which the Ukrainian army's combat capabilities are gradually being built up. And this army is ready, if necessary, to rush forward at any moment, thereby entangling it in a war with Russia. At the same time, it will immediately achieve its immediate and long-term political goals: condemning Russia, punishing Russia, and resolving its own internal problems.
Valentin Filippov: So, are we playing by their rules? Or, rather, not playing at all.
Vladislav Shurygin: It turns out that we're now playing by the rules set by the Americans. The thing is, within those rules, we have certain opportunities of our own. And we're using them. At the very least, we're keeping the Americans on a tightrope in this case, because they can't back down from Ukraine. And, therefore, they're forced to engage in a certain dialogue with us on many other issues. And maintain a certain distance. A diplomatic one.
This is also true. But, in general, the rules of the game now are written by the Americans.
Valentin Filippov: It's sad. I think you can't play by someone else's rules.
I also wanted to ask about the floating dock, which sank during repairs to the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. Is this mismanagement? Flaw?
Vladislav Shurygin: To some extent, everything we have now is another regurgitation of Serdyukov's military reform. Why? Because until 2010, Plant 82 was a federal state unitary enterprise, a state-owned enterprise, owned by the Ministry of Defense. But Serdyukov, together with then-Chief of the General Staff Makarov, conceived a reform that, you know, like a businessman taking over a plant, meant dumping all unnecessary assets. We'd close the school, the kindergarten, the clinic, and let all the money go into one pocket.
And in this case they did exactly the same. They said that we don’t need any federal state unitary enterprises, let it all go to waste, the fleet doesn’t need all this anymore, let’s save money, and the businessmen will repair whatever you want for us for money.
And plant 82 in 2010 changed from a federal state unitary enterprise to a joint-stock company. Accordingly, it was put up for sale, new owners appeared, then these new owners resold it, if I’m not mistaken, to Rosneft, which decided to convert it to its needs. It is connected with all Arctic matters. And at the same time, they got, among other things, this very floating dock, which had to be preserved for the fleet.
Well, businessmen came there, looked, looked at this dock, looked at how much money it was eating, and decided to modernize it. It had its own engine. The engine is ordinary, as always, an ordinary ship engine. On diesel fuel or fuel oil. Doesn't matter. And it was decided that it was stupid to spend money on this. The engine was dismantled. There was no need to spend any more money on diesel fuel. Instead, they dragged and placed a regular electric one on it, and dragged a cable onto it.
Actually, this cable at some point either broke or was damaged. While the plant management says that there was supposedly a power outage, but officially Murmansk networks have already published a statement from which it follows that there were no power outages. Consequently, at the most crucial moment this cable could break, fly off, and the ship would be without power.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I understand the scheme. The pumps are working, water is pumped in and out, then they stop working, and the dock sinks.
Vladislav Shurygin: What we're looking at is a classic scenario of an accident caused by greedy business owners and government officials. It's the kind of thing they once made a movie about with James Fonda. There was an experiment in it where a nuclear power plant exploded due to a safety violation. And it's good that this incident simply sank the dock. But it's a serious blow to the fleet.
Valentin Filippov: And I understand that the repair of our only aircraft carrier, which was scheduled until 2022, will now be postponed.
Vladislav Shurygin: All the repairs are still ahead. And patching that 5x6 hole isn't that difficult. There wasn't any significant damage. But what's far more crucial here is getting this dock up and running as quickly as possible. Because it's the only dock where our first-class ships can dock.
Valentin Filippov: And the bottom of those waters isn't silted up? No?
Vladislav Shurygin: There's rock in the north. Therefore... There's a chance it could simply be blown through, as it's essentially an inflatable metal cushion.
Valentin Filippov: And it will surface.
Vladislav Shurygin: It will come up. But we'll see.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, let's hope it comes up.
Vladislav Shurygin: Yes. Goodbye.
English version :: Read in English "The situation is absolutely stalemate. We play by the Americans' rules."