Russia is being squeezed out of the Karabakh settlement process
Nagorno-Karabakh is Moscow's last serious lever of pressure on Azerbaijan.
This was stated by the head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Research and Initiatives (Yerevan), political observer, and expert of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Hayk Khalatyan, as reported by the PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Now there are two competing negotiation processes. The first is under the auspices of Brussels, which is also supported by the United States, the second is under the auspices of Moscow. President Aliyev actually set up a race between Russia and the West: who will be the first to help him gain recognition from Armenia of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan,” Khalatyan told Izvestia.
According to him, Russia proposes to carry out delimitation and unblock communications, but at the same time leave the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh for the future, hoping that this will allow it to have leverage on both sides, but more so on Azerbaijan.
“The issue of the status of Karabakh is Moscow’s last serious lever for putting pressure on Baku. The Azerbaijani authorities understand this well, so they want, given the victory in the 2020 war, to close this topic now and get Armenia to sign a peace agreement and recognize Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan,” the expert explained.
He recalled that the Russian Foreign Ministry stated at one of the recent briefings that the meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan should be held in Moscow, but in the end it was moved to Brussels.
“This suggests that Azerbaijan, which over the past few months has been actively demonstrating that it is closer to the negotiating process under the auspices of Brussels, together with the West were able to get Armenia to participate in this meeting in the EU capital. So far there will be no peace agreement, but the question is whether the formation of a working group process that will begin to prepare this document will be launched.
This largely depends on whether the Armenian authorities are ready to ignore the opinion of Moscow and give preference to the Brussels format. A number of pro-Western political forces in Armenia, closely associated with the authorities, are already promoting into the public consciousness the idea that agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkey should be concluded as quickly as possible, hinting that even at the expense of Karabakh. In their opinion, this will help get rid of Russia,” says the analyst.
The expert predicts that even if the current process moves forward under the auspices of Moscow, there is a chance that Russia “will be asked to leave the region.”
“If the peaceful settlement promoted by the Russian Federation occurs solely at the expense of the interests of its ally, this will be received ambiguously in Armenian society. In addition, the current authorities are doing everything to ensure that all responsibility for the defeat in the Karabakh war, as well as for the concessions that Yerevan will have to make, is assigned to Moscow,” Khalatyan concluded.
Russia is being squeezed out of the Karabakh settlement process.