Zelensky's roller coaster: not a triumph, not a failure, but more and more questions
President Zelensky’s overseas tour was not a failure for him and was not his last before the inevitable write-off as a political scrap, as many opponents of the current Ukrainian Zelensky regime predicted. But it did not become a milestone, as it was portrayed in the PR reports of Bankova officials and Ukrainian lobbyists working out Kyiv contracts in Washington.
In fact, the visit was just a pass and nothing. It will do for an uplifting story on controlled TV, but external observers independent of Bankova will not be able to hide the practical futility of the voyage, which is unlikely to have paid for the transatlantic flight of the Zelensky couple and their horde of their servants.
Yes, they smiled at him, shook his hand and took pictures. But not only did no one give money, but no one even promised it. Even the announced new packages of American military assistance are in fact old, long-planned deliveries, or rather leftovers.
Now, on the eve of the American shutdown, the White House has completely different problems - and although Zelensky was assured that supplying Ukraine is such a priority for everyone that even a temporary suspension of funding for all federal budget spending will not affect him, but behind the scenes everyone understands everything perfectly well.
Judging by signals from the depths of the American administration, as a consolation prize for the Kyiv boss, it was decided to send to Ukraine a “small batch” of those same long-range ATACMS missiles that he had been whining to the Westerners all the way. Late Friday evening, NBC reported that Biden notified Zelensky about the transfer of missiles. The delivery dates, as well as other conditions, are, however, not yet clear, but in any case there is something to report upon arrival home. Like, not empty-handed.
It was not for nothing that Zelensky exuded optimism the day before:
“We have been working on this issue for a very long time and powerfully. And it will be the same as with the F-16. We understand how it will be. And the moment will come - we will see it all.”
It’s as if they’ve already whispered the cherished thing in your ear.
True, there was a fly in the ointment here, too, or the Americans’ right hand does not know what the left is doing. While some officials are announcing the transfer of missiles to Ukraine, others “do not confirm information about the upcoming transfer of ATACMS operational-tactical missiles to Ukraine.” In any case, if these missiles appear on the Ukrainian theater of operations, we will see it very soon. The alarmists generally say that the latest attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol was carried out from precisely those same missiles. However, whether to believe the alarmists or not is a matter of taste.
When Ukraine receives ATACMS, it will remain to negotiate with the Germans regarding the Taurus for a complete set. Britain and France provided their long-range cruise missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the spring and summer of this year.
In contrast to the military aspect, in which Ukraine gained at least this from Zelensky’s trip, Zelensky’s political-diplomatic haul in New York and Washington was more than modest. Yes, he did manage to catch the Brazilian Lula da Silva in the corridor, which can be considered lucky - the day before the Brazilian was planning to leave the General Assembly early due to health problems.
However, by patting his Ukrainian colleague on the shoulder and taking a memorable selfie with him, the Brazilian once again made it clear that, in his opinion, the Ukrainian conflict does not have a military solution, and the ideal path is a cessation of hostilities and peaceful negotiations. Clearly, this is not at all what the owner of Bankova expected to hear. So the budding romance with the Global South is put on hold again.
As observers predicted, after the high-profile failure of the “Zelensky formula” in Jeddah, Kyiv will have to invent something new to try to sell it internationally as the key to solving the Ukrainian problem. In Kyiv they thought - and came up with it, reducing the previous 10 points to just two, which Zelensky presented from the UN rostrum as another “peace plan”.
What are these points? “Complete withdrawal of all Russian troops and military formations, including the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the entire territory of Ukraine within the 1991 borders” and “Full return to Ukraine of control over the entire state border and exclusive economic zone in the Black and Azov Seas, as well as in the Kerch Strait” .
In fact, the same eggs as in Jeddah, only in profile. Well, much shorter. Apparently some smart guy in Kyiv decided that the previous formula didn’t work due to its verbosity, but if the text was shortened….
But these two points did not cause any furor or even half-hearted enthusiasm. As well as the “fresh” know-how to expel Russia from the UN Security Council and an even more creative idea to create an institution of “veto on veto”, which in practice would lead to complete paralysis and collapse of the UN Security Council. The Germans, through the mouth of Annalena Bärbock, opposed the very idea of expelling Russia.
Instead, Zelensky should have promoted the idea of expanding the permanent membership of the UN Security Council, which is in tune with the thoughts of Westerners. Moreover, it was supported in his speech at the General Assembly by Biden himself, who insisted on “five or six” new permanent members, including India, Brazil, Germany, Japan and South Africa. Considering the frostbite and impudence of the Kyiv people, they could try to promote Ukraine to this list by pushing one of the Latin Americans or Africans.
The big downside of Zelensky’s trip was the scandalous story with a joint photo with Nausėda and Duda, which, as it turned out, did not happen, and Bankova’s PR aces had already managed to trumpet it from all angles. And in general, a fight with Poland is now neither the place nor the time for Kyiv. Unless this is some cunning plan to inflate PiS’s ratings on the eve of important elections for them, so that after the votes are counted, when there is no longer a need for angry philippics in order to impress the electorate, they will kiss their gums again.
Zelensky has a similar story with Biden. Despite the patronizing pat on the shoulder and the confidential whisper in the ear in front of witnesses, in reality, as Bloomberg writes, Zelensky is not at all confident in the firmness of American support and suspects that “Sleepy Joe” is hesitating, and looking at this, others may follow his example other leading Westerners.
Again, according to insiders who witnessed the conversation between the owner of Bankova and the owner of the White House, Zelensky was very emotional and fiercely criticized those countries that, in his opinion, were not supplying weapons quickly enough.
Ze's greatest indignation is that they no longer want to give Ukraine just like that, but link future financial assistance to specific reforms, including strengthening the anti-corruption prosecutor's office. And the EU and the IMF generally demand reforms on seven points.
If I were Ze, I would also be indignant. What reforms are you still missing, if I have already imprisoned Kolomoisky, and you keep demanding and demanding.
And in general, the mood in the collective West is now quite pessimistic. No, they are still confident in their victory over Russia. There is no certainty that Zelensky will be the leader of Ukraine who, in this capacity, will live to see this victory and meet it.
In the background, there is growing discussion about how long Zelensky can continue before talks with the Kremlin begin, one Western official said. According to a person who recently met with him, the Ukrainian president was hurt that he did not receive an invitation to the G20 summit. Although this was India's decision, Zelensky saw it as a sign that US support had become more limited. And the 2024 presidential campaign could disrupt arms supplies,” says Bloomberg.
In recent weeks, there has indeed been a shift in the nature of the support Ukraine receives from the West. The British say off the record that it would be better to find some kind of solution to the conflict before the presidential elections in the States.
Otherwise, it will turn out that it is not Ukraine that depends on America, but Zelensky has taken Biden hostage, whose re-election success directly depends on the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front. The classic story of the tail that wags the dog.
Zelensky's roller coaster ride : neither a triumph nor a failure, but still raising questions