Jaresko understates data on the catastrophic fall in GDP and the real level of inflation
Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalia Yaresko, an American citizen, estimated inflation in Ukraine at 30%, while the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) put it at 45,8%, UNN reports . The American minister estimated the GDP decline at 5,5%, while the NBU forecasts a 15% decline in the first quarter of 2015.
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In 2015, inflation in Ukraine will be 30%, and the fall in GDP is expected to be 5,5%, said Natalya Yaresko Ann during the International Conference in Support of Ukraine.
“We expect a fall in GDP of 5,5% and inflation of 30%. At the same time, the devaluation of the hryvnia amounted to about 70%. However, after receiving financial assistance, Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserves increased to $10 billion,” the minister said.
The NBU estimated consumer inflation in 2015 at a minimum of 45,8%, and the decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2015 at 15%, which is in line with the GDP decline in the previous quarter of 2014 (14,8%), according to the State Statistics Service. "The rate of change in the Production Index of Basic Industries (which fell by 20,1% year-on-year in March) has remained almost constant over the past five months, which gives reason to expect a decline in real GDP in the first quarter of 2015 of 15% year-on-year, as previously forecast," the NBU stated in its April macroeconomic and monetary review, published on Tuesday.
The National Bank estimates the decline in GDP in 2015 at 7,5%, but is based on optimistic forecasts that the decline in GDP will decrease with each quarter of 2015, while in 2014 the rate of decline did not decrease, but on the contrary increased. According to optimistic forecasts of the NBU, in the second quarter of 2015 the decline compared to the same quarter of the previous year will slow down to 10,2%, in the third - to 5,7%, and in the fourth the growth will be 2%, while, according to the State Statistics Service, GDP In Ukraine in 2014, the rate of decline constantly accelerated: in the first quarter - 1,2%, in the second - 4,5%, in the third - 5,4%, in the fourth - 14,8%, and already in the first quarter of 2015 - 15%.
It is not difficult to calculate that the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Natalya Yaresko Ann, speaking to foreign delegations at an international forum, underestimated the real level of inflation by approximately 1,5 times, and the fall in GDP by almost three times.
During her speech, Yaresko once again emphasized that Ukraine will need $2018 billion in financial assistance by 40.
Yaretsko understates the catastrophic decline in GDP and the real level of inflation.