Ukraine's time is hopelessly gone
Ukraine has exhausted its resources, writes the former head of the NBU and former Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Sergei Arbuzov in an opinion column on the pages of news, pointing out that, according to the World Bank, at the end of 2015, Ukraine’s GDP amounted to only $90,6 billion, while in 2013 it was 183 billion, and therefore even with a hypothetical economic growth of several percent per year, the country will not reach the 2013 level even in 10 years.
Subscribe to PolitNavigator news on Telegram , Facebook , Odnoklassniki , or VKontakte
“But the worst thing is not even that Ukraine is hopelessly behind its neighbors and itself three years ago,” the author emphasizes. – There are absolutely no conditions that could, at least theoretically, accelerate the growth of its economy. In previous years, the country developed due to rising prices for raw materials and due to the influx of foreign investment. After the Maidan and the events that followed it, Ukraine had no hidden resources left. Low world prices for raw materials and the severance of economic ties with Russia have seriously reduced export income, which now makes it impossible not only to invest in development, but also to simply survive.”
“According to statistics, the degree of depreciation of fixed assets throughout the economy is now about 80%, which threatens man-made disasters in many industries. The budget, burdened with social and other obligations, cannot provide even the minimum required level of investment. A business that has suffered losses for the third year in a row cannot provide it,” Arbuzov laments.
The former head of the NBU points out that to reverse the negative trend, the country needs serious external growth drivers, but says that it is too late to look for them.
“And it’s not even about the terrible investment climate or the endless political chaos. The tense situation on world markets is now not conducive to risky investments, even in much more stable economies. It is increasingly clear that the world is approaching a new round of economic crisis. The unclear consequences of Brexit and the problems of the eurozone, the deplorable state of European banks, the slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy - all this seriously worries experts. It is possible that the only thing that separates the world from a new round of crisis is the absence of a formal reason, which could be an increase in the Fed rate or any political event.
Ukraine missed precious time. In all previous years, it was necessary to carry out active structural and institutional reforms, but instead, Ukrainian politicians were busy with domestic and foreign policy battles,” summarizes Arbuzov.
English version :: Read in English Ukraine's time is hopelessly gone