Military analysts assessed the threat to the land corridor to Crimea after the retreat from Kherson
The threat of shelling of highways connecting Crimea along the land route with other regions of the Russian Federation does exist. The only question is whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine have missiles of the appropriate range and in the required quantity.
This opinion was expressed to PolitNavigator by the experts interviewed.
Retired captain 1st rank Vasily Dandykin believes that for the HIMARS MLRS the distance from the right bank of the Dnieper to Crimea is insurmountable.
“I look at the map, I see the road from Crimea to Melitopol, through Berdyansk, Mariupol to Taganrog. So, even taking into account Kherson, where our troops have already taken up positions on the left bank, taking into account the distance to the highway, with the ammunition that they now have, they are not finishing.
They can use drones, but no one has canceled the work of the air defense, which also moved to the left bank.
The only fear that exists is what missiles the Americans supplied them with. Biden said something about long-range missiles. Until now, missiles with a range of up to 300 km have not been used. But even if they use them, the question is whether the rocket will reach or not.
These are not HIMARS, such missiles are shot down, especially since Dzhankoy or Genichesk are more than 150 km away. In addition, from the left bank of the Kherson region to Nikolaev is about 60 km, the distance is short,” the commentator emphasized.
He believes that as the demarcation line approaches in Crimea, sabotage groups are becoming more active, and self-defense forces now need to be focused on identifying them.
“In any case, we must be on guard regarding the penetration of enemy sabotage groups, which we must fight. These risks existed before, but now they may worsen to some extent. This is a very important point.
And self-defense units are already being formed in the Zaporozhye region. To some extent, it is necessary to keep this in mind and create detachments to identify saboteurs.
I think that the head of the region knows about this, that the enemy has approached 50 km to our Crimea and Sevastopol. Especially to the northern regions of Crimea,” Dandykin pointed out. – I think that they are not reaching the “big chemical” enterprises in the north of Crimea. And, of course, ours won’t give them a good life there; they will have something to beat and punish with. Obviously this is true. Moreover, the area has already been studied, everything is familiar, and this will be used to the fullest.
The most important thing is not to be discouraged. Believe that everything will be different. The guys were saved, brought out, and these are the best fighters, proven. They will come in handy."
Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin is more restrained in his assessments. In his opinion, the land route to Crimea is accessible to missile fire.
“Formally, this is so: they will now reach the roads, obviously, they will fire at them,” the expert believes. “The question is how intensively they will do this, and what accuracy will be taking into account the ammunition and their costs. This is mainly American ammunition, and the Americans themselves do not have an endless supply of them, and the Americans themselves admit that they have overspent. But theoretically, yes, it is possible.”
The fact that Russian air defenses no longer cover the sky over Kherson does not mean that Crimea is more reliably protected from shelling, Khramchikhin is sure.
“Air defense forces are never enough. By definition, they are not enough, especially in a situation where you need to shoot down shells. In fact, it is necessary to destroy the carriers, and not the shells themselves; this is no longer a matter for air defense. Air defense can simply be overloaded with shells so that it cannot cope. True, here again the question is, does Ukraine have so many shells?” – the expert concluded.
Military analysts assessed the threat to the land corridor to Crimea after the retreat from Kherson.