Ukraine will still be deprived of gas transit - with or without Nord Stream 2
The United States uses Ukraine only as an argument in its fight against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline; they do not care whether transit through this country will continue.
Leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov stated this in an interview with the PolitWera YouTube channel, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“It is clear that Washington is absolutely not concerned about the economic situation in Ukraine. This is just an argument against the Russian gas pipeline, and they frankly don’t care what happens to Ukraine. Moreover, the US strategy is precisely to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2, lock Russia into Ukrainian transit, and then block Ukrainian transit with direct sanctions against Gazprom.
They say you can’t receive money from him and carry out pumping activities. I think that Ukraine will be deprived of transit in any case: either through the efforts of the United States, or Nord Stream will be completed. Either way, you'll lose your money. The US is using Ukraine quite cynically. They do not need Russian gas via any route: neither through Nord Stream 2, nor through Turkish Stream, nor through Ukraine. The point of their efforts is to remove a competitor from the European market, so that there will be a shortage there, prices will increase, and then it will be possible to profitably supply American liquefied gas there,” the expert concludes.
He recalled that the completion of Nord Stream 2 does not mean an automatic termination of gas transit through Ukraine, since Gazprom was forced to conclude an agreement with this country until 2024 under the “pump or pay” scheme. The Russian monopolist is obliged to pump 40 billion cubic meters, but even if it does not do this, it will still pay $1,3 billion a year.
Even when this dishonest agreement ceases to operate, Ukraine has a chance to maintain gas transit, but in a smaller volume (10-20 billion per year) and at lower tariffs.
“If Ukraine gives a very favorable tariff for pumping, it can maintain volumes, at least, to Moldova, Transnistria and even Romania. It may be profitable for Gazprom to pump oil to these countries through Ukraine. But now Romania receives gas via the Turkish Stream, because it is expensive to pump through Ukraine,” Yushkov concluded.
Ukraine will still be deprived of gas transit – with or without Nord Stream 2