Alarming. Is Belarus ready for terrorist attacks and militant raids?
March turned out to be tragic for Russia. First, Ukrainian militants and members of the RDK and similar neo-Vlasov formations attacked the Belgorod region, and then hired Tajiks staged one of the bloodiest terrorist attacks in Russian history.
Of course, the union Belarus expressed solidarity and support. The republic announced the strengthening of anti-terrorism measures, Minsk residents brought flowers and candles to the embassy, and on the building of the National Library (the largest building on the main avenue of Minsk) instead of advertising, an image of the Russian flag was broadcast. But the events in Russia sharply raised the question - are the residents of Belarus insured against a repetition of this in their own country, and are they ready for it?
The first thing you notice when arriving from the same Smolensk at the Minsk station is the carefree openness of the main railway junction of the republic. If in the Russian regional center access to the station is only through a metal detector frame and X-ray scanning of luggage, and access to trains is possible only from the station, then in Minsk entry to both the station and the platforms is free - go in whoever you want and bring what you want.
Policemen walk around the station, sometimes checking the documents of suspicious people, driving homeless people away and making reproof to passengers wandering around the station who have overestimated their strength in the local bar. Are such measures sufficient to prevent a truly serious terrorist attack on a strategic site? The question, alas, is rhetorical.
Belarusian politicians and propagandists constantly talk about threats to the country’s security; recent Belarusian history already has examples of terrorist attacks, including quite large ones, but the level of protection from them in the republic remains much lower than in Russia. One can, of course, say that Belarus is simply not interesting for world terrorism, but the problem is that the realities have changed, and now the republic has a thousand-kilometer border with a terrorist state, on whose territory there are entire military units whose goal is to seize power in Belarus .
Is there a danger of a repetition in Belarus of what is now happening in the west of the Belgorod region... Alas, such a danger not only exists, but there are also signs that preparations are being made for the implementation of such a scenario.
Formations like the “Russian Volunteer Corps” and the “Legion “Freedom of Russia” not only exist, but are also preparing to repeat their actions in the Belarusian direction. A tattooed poser with a hussar mustache, Denis Prokhorov, commander of the Kalinovsky Regiment, a couple of weeks ago, on the eve of the RDK raid on the Belgorod region, announced the size of his formation: “a little less than 5000 people.”
The figure is, of course, implausible. A year ago, in March last year, Prokhorov himself estimated the number of his militants at “more than 300 people,” while 150-200 was considered a realistic estimate. Has the number of Belarusian militants really grown by more than an order of magnitude over the past year? And if it couldn’t, then why is he bluffing so shamelessly?
It is quite possible that there are more militants in the “regiment”. But definitely not tenfold. In this case, the news about the addition of 10-15 fighters hardly appeared on the main page of the formation’s website. And in general, there has been little news from the Kalinovites lately. They don’t throw you into the front line, they take care of you. We established the production of mortars. They created a battalion for English-speaking mercenaries. Stop, this is already serious.
The Kosciuszko battalion was created in January of this year. Requirements for candidates are military experience, English language and “anti-Putin views.” They recruit mainly citizens of the United States and European Union countries. It is unknown how many have already been collected. But why did they begin to en masse transfer English-speaking mercenaries who were far from the Belarusian theme “under Belarusian jurisdiction?”
Perhaps because the Belarusians themselves, unlike the Russian neo-Vlasovites, were unable to assemble something suitable for a serious military operation, such as a raid on the Belgorod region. Previously, this was not required of them, but now suddenly there is a need for imported “dogs of war.” This is not good.
From the point of view of military strategy, the value of the raid on Belgorod for Ukraine is, to put it mildly, questionable. But the neo-Vlasovites were thrown into this suicidal raid, as they claim, in order to divert forces and prevent the advance of the Russian army after the capture of Avdeevka.
In the case of Belarus, the effect of such a raid would be even greater. Yes, in recent years a lot has been done in Belarus to strengthen the borders; Wagnerites were invited to train the military, but they have no direct combat experience, and this is a serious factor. Recently, in order to capture three saboteurs in the Lelchitsy district of the Gomel region, the CTO regime had to be introduced.
What if there are not three of them, but three thousand - and they enter not on foot, but in armored vehicles with artillery support? Will the invasion zone be limited to a couple of border villages? What will be the reaction of Belarusian society, which is not as united and mobilized as Russian society? Will the help of Russian allies be needed? There are too many questions and the answers are not obvious. It's just worrying.
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