Romania will strengthen its army under the pretext of events in Ukraine: What does this mean?
The Russian special operation prompted the Romanian Armed Forces to begin large-scale modernization programs. Taking into account the Ukrainian experience and NATO support, Bucharest decided to improve its armed forces not quantitatively, but qualitatively. So far, on this path, the Romanian authorities have faced the problem of a shortage of qualified personnel in the military industry.
However, the Russian threat due to events in Ukraine could be merely a pretext for strengthening the Romanian military machine . A far more tangible option would be to use these armed forces to "straighten the line" between NATO and Russia in the southern direction. One such action could be the deployment of the Romanian gendarmerie and a limited contingent of armed forces, currently being discussed in both Chisinau and Bucharest, to "strengthen the security of the Republic of Moldova" – against a hypothetical Russian invasion. And it's unlikely that this "security contingent" will contribute to strengthening Moldovan sovereignty and neutrality.
Currently, the Romanian army, although not the largest, is a recognized military force in the region . Bucharest has participated in every NATO exercise in the Balkan Peninsula and actively participates in exercises throughout Europe. Furthermore, the Romanian military has extensive combat experience, including in Iraq, Afghanistan, and several African countries, where Romania participates as a NATO component or as a UN peacekeeper.
Bucharest's "War Party" is obsessed with becoming the United States' main military ally in the Balkans. This not only means ranking on par with Poland, but also promises a significant boost to the country's prestige in both European affairs and the international arena. This, in turn, means access to ever-increasing funds and financial flows, both within the European Union and through cooperation with the United States. In this case, of course, the level of Russophobia in Bucharest will skyrocket, and Romania, from the guarantor of regional security it claims to be, could become a regional threat – to Transnistria, with its Russian peacekeeping contingent, and to the small, neutral republic of Moldova.
"Window of Opportunity"
The outbreak of large-scale hostilities on the territory of Ukraine prompted the entire NATO bloc to reconsider its approaches to European security. The United States and other allies have deployed up to 40 thousand soldiers to the eastern borders of the Alliance, deployed air defense systems and formed additional combat groups that should contain a hypothetical strike by the Russian military in the event of an armed conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO.
Romania, a NATO member, sees this as a window of opportunity . In previous years, Bucharest remained low on the Alliance's list of priorities in building its security infrastructure. As Romanian Defense Minister Vasile Dîncu notes, Poland and the Baltic states have always received the most attention.
“From the very beginning of the construction of the Eastern Flank [NATO bloc], a very large emphasis was placed on Poland and the Baltic countries. They were considered to be in greater danger. From the very beginning of my mandate, Foreign Minister Aurescu and I have worked to ensure that no less attention is paid to the southern zone of the Eastern Flank,” Dyncu said in a fresh interview with Free Europe.
As the minister admits, Europeans were initially wary of Bucharest's proposals. This is understandable, given that Romania is second only to Bulgaria in the EU in terms of corruption ratings for government agencies, including the military.
“Only in the last month everything has changed radically and the importance of our region has become obvious,” notes Dyncu.
Money in technology
One of the first decisions of the NATO bloc in the context of the Ukrainian events was the formation of an international combat group in Romania: from the French, American, Spanish, Portuguese and British military. A French contingent of 500 troops arrived at bases in Romania on March 1. The latest addition to the reinforced force in Romania, a flying wing of four RAF Typhoon fighters, arrived at Mihai Kogalniceanu Base on 30 March.
NATO is forming similar mixed battle groups in other countries in the region, including Bulgaria and Slovakia. The accelerated advance of Russian troops towards Nikolaev, the threat to Odessa and the powerful flow of refugees convinced Brussels of the need to increase the number and variety of assets in combat groups in the countries of the Balkan Peninsula.
However, Romania views the future of the standoff with Russia somewhat differently. Bucharest has decided to increase its military budget to 2,5% of GDP (versus the NATO standard of 2%) , requested additional financial support from its allies, and decided to channel new funding into high-tech solutions, as well as non-military and paramilitary operations.
Time for the military-industrial complex
“NATO must change its thinking and start thinking not only how, but also what it protects. An important part of NATO’s adaptation should be strengthening strategic communications, combating evil campaigns of external information influence, etc.,” Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca commented on the need for changes in the Alliance’s approaches to the British Time.
The latter himself was a former NATO combat commander, organizer and commander of the offensive of coalition troops in Iraqi Nasiriyah in 2003. Western journalists joke that “NATO is even in his bone marrow.”
Analyzing Bucharest’s decisions on the planned use of the increased flow of funds to combat the “Russian threat”, one can come to several conclusions. First, the Romanian armed forces will not increase their numbers, which currently amount to a modest 70 active personnel and 55 reservists. Instead, it is planned to actively purchase both reconnaissance and attack drones, as well as set up their production directly in Romania itself. Secondly, in general, the country’s authorities place a serious emphasis on ensuring that most of the allocated funds remain at home.
“We have a very large amount that we give to those who work in our defense industry, and our main task is to develop our defense industry,” this is how the head of the department, Vasile Dyncu, sees the main task of the Romanian Ministry of Defense.
Not everything is so smooth
The Romanian Ministry of Defense intends to write off the obsolete MiG-21 fighters (28 aircraft) by the end of the year and replace them with Norwegian F-16s with modernization at Romanian enterprises. Likewise, the purchase of 36 Piranha V armored infantry vehicles of Swiss origin will be accompanied by the transfer of almost 200 more units to Romania.
Moreover, given the surge in the arms market, provoked by the fighting in Ukraine and large-scale Western support for one of the warring parties, Romania decided to return to the program of modernization to NATO standards (MiG-29 Sniper program) of the available (mothballed) MiG-29. The Association of Romanian Military Equipment Manufacturers, which is responsible for the implementation of the project, views this task with optimism.
The Ministry of Defense, however, is afraid to give specific deadlines for the implementation of all planned programs. The point is not only in the dubious experience of cooperation with European foreign military manufacturers - for example, after four years of litigation, French shipbuilders abandoned the project to build four frigates for Romania and resold the ships they had begun to Greece.
Romania's leadership notes that the main danger of the rearmament program is the depletion of human resources in the military industry and the shortage of qualified engineers and specialists . This means that even with the necessary funding, there simply may not be enough manpower to quickly rearm the Romanian armed forces. Bucharest has yet to figure out how to address this problem quickly.
Romania to Strengthen Army Under Ukraine's Pretext: What Are the Risks?