Forecast: residents of the DPR and LPR will vote for joining Russia
The majority of residents of the DPR and LPR will speak out in favor of their republics joining Russia.
This forecast is given today by political scientist Denis Denisov, analyzing in Izvestia possible options for holding a referendum in the Donbass, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Considering various options for possible issues at referendums in the Donbass republics, we can highlight the most relevant ones at the moment. For example, “Would you like the DPR and LPR to return to Ukraine with the rights of broad autonomy?” With this formulation of the question, the likely result will be: “for” - about 10-15%, “against” - 85-90%.
To the question: “Would you like the DPR and LPR to continue to develop as independent states?” tentative answers may be as follows: “for” - 65-70%, “against” - 30-35%.
When formulated: “Which of the three options do you think is optimal for the development of the DPR and LPR? a) Return to Ukraine; b) Development of an independent state; c) Joining the Russian Federation,” the most likely result seems to be the following: option “a” - 3–5%, option “b” — 10–15%, option “c” — 80–87%,” writes Denisov.
He notes that on the basis of Ukrainian legislation it is impossible to hold a referendum in the DPR and LPR, since at the moment there is only the law of Ukraine “On the All-Ukrainian Referendum”.
“In order to ensure maximum legitimacy of referendums, it is quite acceptable to involve representatives of the OSCE and the UN to develop a compromise version of the legal support for voting. At present, the organizers and operators of referendums in the DPR and LPR can only be the Central Election Commission of the Donbass republics, which have experience in conducting referendums and elections. Representatives of the UN and OSCE can provide advisory support and subsequently act as observers of the voting process,” writes Denisov.
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