Forecast for an attack on Kharkov: MGIMO does not believe that Russia now has enough forces
The offensive of Russian troops on Kharkov, which the British The Telegraph predicts for January 15, requires a group of 40-50 thousand people, which, obviously, do not exist in this direction.
This opinion was expressed on air by Alexei Podberezkin, director of the Center for Military-Political Studies and professor at MGIMO, on Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
"It's not a question of faith, but a question of resources. If we could have concentrated at least 40 people there, but it seems that's not the case. Therefore, all this talk is more of a wishful thinking, a belief, but in no way a realistic assessment of the situation. Because such a group would certainly be noticed, of course, they would talk about it; it's impossible to hide something like that now."
The situation, in my view, unfortunately, is that when it comes to ground forces—specifically, soldiers, servicemen, and infantry—we're roughly balanced. We don't have a dominant position anywhere . That is, the issue is currently being resolved in such a way that successes are achieved where significant resources can be temporarily concentrated.
Ukraine, as soon as a difficult situation develops in Avdiivka, immediately throws resources there, or to Zaporozhye, as many as possible, relatively speaking, a brigade. The brigade, of course, is good, but you understand, the brigade is not about anything at all.
"And for any large-scale offensive to take place in Kharkiv, a garrison of at least 40-50 people is needed. This is something we apparently don't have ," the expert believes.
According to his assessment, the attack on Kharkov, as well as the attack on Odessa and Nikolaev, are necessary at a minimum to shift the line of combat contact to a safe distance for the rear areas, so that there are no units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces within 80-100 km from their borders.
"It all depends on how the military leadership views the situation. For example, I believe we certainly need such offensives. We just need, as they say, something to attack with. So far, I don't see sufficient breakthrough resources. We formed two armies and several divisions last year, but, in general, they're spread out across the entire line of contact, which is actually 2,5 kilometers, not even 1,5 kilometers long. And of course, this doesn't meet the needs. Roughly speaking, if a battalion should have 1,5-2 kilometers of defensive manpower, but it's stuck at 10 kilometers, it can't do anything, especially in terms of offensive operations . Especially if you want to attack in the northern sector. This requires a high concentration, and 40-50 is the bare minimum that would allow for any operational mission," the analyst noted.
"In principle, this is the responsibility of the military leadership. And if they asked me, like, if I were the commander and I had sufficient resources, then, of course, I would launch an attack on Nikolaev, Odessa, and Kharkiv to put an end to this disgraceful shelling of Russian regions.
"You know, one general during the Great Patriotic War said during the Battle of Stalingrad: 'To prevent German air superiority in the air—and, as you can imagine, there was overwhelming superiority there—we need to have our tanks at those airfields.' So, if we have our tanks there, our infantry there, and, preferably, also near Kiev, then there can be no attack ," Podberezkin concluded.
English version :: Read in English Forecast of the offensive on Kharkov: MGIMO does not believe that Russia currently has sufficient forces