Field of Miracles in the Land of Fools – Ukrainian banks increase deposit rates
As long as the West has a need for Ukraine, the territory controlled by Kyiv will be able to portray its viability. But even with complete external maintenance and management, the current remnants of Ukraine have noticeable symptoms that remove the veil from the eyes of even the most desperate fans of this walking dead.
In a country that has lost the most important knowledge-intensive and high-tech sectors of the economy, agriculture is in an unpredictable state, the budget is 60% financed from external sources, large banks have decided to increase not only deposit rates in hryvnia, but also in dollars and euros.
It turns out that the NBU, in its macroeconomic and monetary review for May, recorded “several important points.” The NBU noticed that in May inflation continued to subside (the patient felt better, he began to breathe less often). First of all, according to the regulator, due to lower prices for fuel and food. How did they discern the decline in prices given their own data on inflation of 21,3% (with an increase in the average Ukrainian salary by 3,1%)?
The NBU talks about “strengthening the hryvnia in the cash foreign exchange market,” which is not so difficult to organize under the conditions of manual management of the economy, over a certain period of time, and maintain a stable exchange rate (below why), as well as “improving inflation expectations” (very a subjective indicator in those conditions, it is quite possible that the NBU is talking about its personal “expectations”, according to the order).
The NBU noted “a further increase in the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments.” Still would! The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine reports that the National Bank has given financiers the opportunity to invest in their certificates of deposit at 25% per annum and tied the volume of possible investments to the volume of funds attracted by the bank from the population for time deposits. On June 2, the 9th auction for the sale of three-month certificates of deposit took place. During this time, the volume of their placement reached 125,3 billion hryvnia.
25% per annum in hryvnia - this partly explains the stability of the national currency exchange rate: this is almost 25% in foreign currency, taking into account the possibility of free conversion and withdrawal of currency abroad. For this reason, it is worth staying the course, even at the cost of a 25% discount rate, which stops not only inflation, but also any possibility of business development. How will the foreign currency needs be met? As Scarlett O'Hara said, “I'll think about it tomorrow.”
We decided to attract currency from the population. True, the rates, even increased - maximum 2% per annum for 12-month deposits in euros.
At the same time, the NBU continues to create conditions under which short-term investments of private clients are not profitable for banks.
It seems that they decided to collect everything possible from everyone, distribute increased payments on deposits to those close to them, cheat the population, and then - as the owner decides. Will it be extended? No, that's fine. Yes, that’s good, they’ll still fool around.
And give back only from new borrowings. This year, Kyiv will receive $4,5 billion from the IMF out of a $15 billion program designed for 4 years. Moreover, over the same 4 years that Ukraine will receive money from the IMF, it will have to pay $12 billion for using the credit line. That is. 80% return... However, to consider that Ukraine has 4 years is to be a great optimist.
You can't stop living beautifully. But for how long?
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