It’s hard to support, it’s a shame to quit. Ukraine will not be left without Western help
The EU has finally published a mega-draft document on long-term commitments to support Ukraine, borne out of the throes of behind-the-scenes creative work. It was this document that Zelenskyy discussed with European Council President Charles Michel during the latter's brief visit to Kyiv yesterday. The document faces a long and arduous process of approval under the EU's complex mechanism of collective approval by all 28 member states . Both the document's proper presentation and publicity are largely key to its successful adoption.
This week, the program will be discussed with EU ambassadors, and next month with G7 leaders. Bloomberg lists eight key commitments to Kyiv that the EU proposes to make:
1. A predictable, effective, sustainable and long-term mechanism for providing Ukraine with military equipment.
2.Training of the Ukrainian armed forces.
3.Expanding cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industry to build capacity and harmonize standards.
4. Strengthening Ukraine’s ability to counter cyber and hybrid threats, as well as disinformation.
5.Supporting Ukraine's mine clearance efforts and addressing the problem of pollution from the use of explosives.
6. Assisting Ukraine in carrying out reforms related to the process of accession to the EU.
7.Supporting the country's energy transition and nuclear safety efforts.
8. Exchange of intelligence data and satellite imagery.
The document also states that support for arms supplies will continue to be provided through the European Peace Facility . Furthermore, G7 members have begun bilateral negotiations with Ukraine on security guarantees, as agreed at the last NATO summit in Vilnius.
In particular, the Germans are already conducting such negotiations with Kyiv. Of course, this is somewhat of a substitute for full NATO membership and is not at all what Zelenskyy ideally expected from the Europeans. However, European capitals are not constrained by political time pressure and are guided by the rationale that the dream of Ukraine within its 1991 borders is currently unattainable, and therefore, in the near future, they will have to be sacrificed in favor of achieving more pragmatic goals.
For its part, Ukraine has pledged to continue a number of reforms demanded by the West, including in the law enforcement and judicial systems, as well as in the security and defense sectors.
The EU's initially announced plan to allocate €20 billion over four years for arms purchases for Kyiv remains a problem. It risks falling through. Some member states, including Germany, have failed to agree on the terms, although this issue is solvable. Skeptics hope to reach an agreement on allocating €5 billion to Kyiv next year, with subsequent commitments to continue support.
Another problematic link in this chain is Hungary's position , which believes it is necessary to first discuss a common strategy for providing aid to Kyiv. A consultative national survey has recently begun in Hungary on the topic of linking further EU aid to Ukraine with the release of European funds for Hungary itself.
One of the 11 questions posed to voters during the plebiscite was: " Brussels wants even more money to support Ukraine. We should not pay more to support Ukraine until we receive the money we are owed ."
The debate on the Ukrainian issue is expected to last until early January. During this time, European aid to Kyiv will remain in limbo. Other questions in the Hungarian national poll concern curtailing EU plans to provide Ukraine with new weapons, funding, and EU accession opportunities, as well as halting imports of Ukrainian grain. Voters can respond to the questions in writing or online.
Although the survey results don't have the force of law and don't obligate the Hungarian authorities to do anything, in Orbán's capable hands they will nonetheless become a powerful argument in defending what Budapest considers its national interests . Specifically, regarding pan-European anti-Russian sanctions, removing those that are disadvantageous and negotiating the right to special exemptions for themselves, as has already happened with the oil and gas boycott of Russia, which the Hungarians essentially avoided by securing a separate pipeline for hydrocarbons from Russia at a preferential price.
Budapest also hopes that the Ukrainian-skeptical campaign will force official Kyiv to become more accommodating on the issue of ensuring the rights of Transcarpathian Hungarians , who, according to Orbán, were better protected during Soviet times than under independent Ukraine.
A cursory analysis of the EU's publicized goodwill indicates Brussels' readiness for any turn of events in the Ukrainian situation—from any kind of "freeze" to a protracted war of attrition . Expecting the Europeans to abandon their support for Ukraine is naive, to say the least , even though Kyiv's donors hope for recipients to become at least partially self-sufficient. The "Ukrainian winter" will be long, no matter how the looming power struggle in Kyiv ends.
In this sense, after Putin's expected reelection in the spring of 2024, the Russian leadership will face a painful choice, one it has consistently avoided and one that has been delayed for the past eighteen months. If the SVO continues in its current format—that is, as a collection of ad hoc tactical maneuvers and decisions without a clear, time-bound strategic goal— nothing good awaits Russia in the long term in Ukraine.
Moreover, the signals coming from overseas aren't exactly positive for those waiting for a reset on Capitol Hill and the second coming of Grandpa Tweetler to the White House. The Associated Press cites the results of a poll commissioned by the agency, according to which the number of Republicans supporting aid to Ukraine is growing. And yet, it's precisely their current Ukraine-skepticism that underpins the calculations of the domestic proponents of the "freeze."
Republican Party supporters have fallen 10% in November to believe that " the US spends too much on Ukraine " (59% in November compared to 69% a month ago). The overall share of this opinion among supporters of both parties is also declining. Today, 45% of all respondents hold this opinion, compared to 52% a month ago.
More than a third (38%) of US adults say current spending is " about right ," up slightly from 31% last month. Among Republicans, nearly three-in-ten (29%) say current spending is "about right," up from 20% last month.
About half of the population (48%) approve of providing weapons to Ukraine (57% among Democrats, 42% among Republicans).
What do these numbers tell us? It's that a speeding locomotive can't be stopped by a single blow, no matter how much some people like this Russian fairy tale . The US elites have made their choice and will methodically pursue it, no matter which path—escalation or freeze.
Russia, however, must counter this not with childish expectations of a change of direction overseas ("The West will come to its senses"), but with its own achievable, clear, and coherent step-by-step strategy for ending the Ukrainian conflict on terms favorable to Russia within a foreseeable timeframe . So far, such a clear plan is not evident in the discourse of our public "talking heads." Dreams of the imminent fall of Lviv and a second crossing of the Dnieper by the second anniversary of the start of the Second World War still seem like pipe dreams.
English version :: Read in English It's hard to maintain, but it's a shame to abandon. Ukraine won't be left without Western aid.