Lukashenko in Beijing: Does Russia have reason to worry?
Lukashenko’s visit to Beijing caused a stormy reaction - both from Ukrainian nationalists and Belarusian zmagars, and from Russian opponents of Father’s “multi-vectorism”.
Ukrainians and Zmagars are trying to portray the trip as if Lukashenko is seeking to break free from the weakening embrace of Moscow and find a new strong master in the person of Chairman Xi. Obviously, this interpretation was chosen specifically – the news from China has already irritated a number of traditional Russian critics of Lukashenko’s obstinacy.
By the way, a separate topic is Belarusian turbo-patriots, in whose imagination The navel of the Earth is in Minsk, and the whole world revolves around Belarus. These people are now talking with all their might almost about the fateful significance of the visit for all humanity.
I would like to disappoint the first and reassure the others. It is useless to argue with others. The Belarusian president has always had similar rhetoric regarding China. While anything could happen in relations with Russia, he invariably exuded goodwill towards China, which is understandable. Father periodically had disputes with Russia - either over gas, then over oil, then over milk, and he is very jealous of his sovereignty. With China, he has no subjects to argue with - that’s why relations were cloudless.
But it's perfect does not mean that the Belarusian leader was really ready to change his “big brother” and, even more so, that China was ready to become such a “big brother” for Belarus instead of Russia.
Russia and China do not and cannot have any contradictions on the Belarusian issue. If the West views Belarus as a potential “bastion against Russian neo-imperialism” and seeks to destabilize the republic, thereby weakening Russia’s international influence and expanding the arc of tension along its borders, then For China, Belarus is not at all a priority foreign policy area.
Yes, China is actively investing in Belarus and conducting economic expansion there, but it does the same in relation to most countries of the world. Relations with Moscow are incomparably higher for Beijing than relations with Minsk, and he will never overshadow this relationship with unnecessary rivalry.
The broad economic agenda of Lukashenko’s visit to China is as necessary for the republic as increasing economic interaction between China and Russia. The republic, just like Russia, has suffered from Western sanctions and needs China.
Per year Russia's share in Belarusian foreign trade increased from 47 to 60 percent, but despite all the importance of the Russian market for Belarus, it cannot completely replace lost ties with the West.
Everything is clear with the economy. The West is leaving Belarus, and China, to mutual benefit, as in the case of Russia, is seeking to fill some of the vacated niches.
Geopolitics is another matter. Lukashenko’s visit to the Celestial Empire takes place against the backdrop of intensified Chinese diplomacy in the Russian-Ukrainian direction. On February 19, at the Munich Conference, the recent Chinese Foreign Minister, and now the curator of all foreign policy in the CPC Central Committee, Wang Yi, caused a stir by saying that on the anniversary of the Russian special operation, China would present its plan for resolving the conflict. Immediately from Munich, Comrade Wang Yi went to Moscow, where he met separately with Patrushev, Lavrov and, finally, Putin. The list of contacts is impressive and speaks volumes about the seriousness of the issues being discussed. There is no doubt that the main one was the Chinese plan for a settlement in Ukraine.
The plan itself, as promised, was published on February 24 and contained 12 points. Not to say that there was something radical and breakthrough in them. There are few specifics in it, the wording is streamlined and, rather, comes down to the formula “for everything good and against everything bad”, which are a real road map for resolving the conflict.
However, as a starting point for a peacekeeping initiative, it will do, especially since Western policy in the Ukrainian direction is increasingly reaching a dead end and causing growing resistance in the West itself.
Let us observe the chronology of events further. Already in the evening of the same day, when the Chinese published their 12 theses, Lukashenko had a long conversation with Putin. The next morning, February 25, Lukashenko’s press service announced that on February 28 the Belarusian president would go on a state visit to China. Another day later, on the morning of February 26, an attack was carried out on the Belarusian airfield in Machulishchi. One of the most realistic versions of what happened is that the attack was carried out by Ukraine, thereby intending to disrupt Lukashenko’s visit to Beijing. Does anyone believe that this entire extremely intense series of events is a coincidence?
Apparently, the main meaning Lukashenko's surprise visit to China, which was received out of turn in Beijing, at the highest level and with maximum protocol status - that he was a confidant of the Kremlin. We will soon see the continuation of the story - on March 1, Putin, opening the station of the Big Circle Line of the Moscow metro, confirmed the imminent visit of Chairman Xi to Moscow.
English version :: Read in English Lukashenko in Beijing: Does Russia have reason to worry?