A Kiev expert laments: “Nothing will help. Belarus will fall into Putin's arms"
On the one hand, the President of the Russian Federation does not benefit from the fall of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko as an example of the possibility of overthrowing the dictatorship; on the other hand, all opposition candidates are “pro-Moscow agents.”
Political strategist Taras Berezovets, who serves ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, stated this on air on his video blog, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Putin has two alternatives. On the one hand, he needs to show the population of the Russian Federation that you cannot overthrow the ruler of the country like that and nothing will happen to you for it. That is, for him to set an example for Russia to show that the dictatorship was overthrown peacefully in neighboring Belarus is like death. And therefore, logically, he needs to support [Lukashenko], and they even publicly agreed that we will help you by any means, including military.
But for Putin, this is also a road to nowhere - he becomes a support for Lukashenko, he supports him, while everyone is against it: the States are against it, the EU is against it, Ukraine and even China will be against it. That is, he gets a controlled Luka, from whom he needs to get a common market, switch to a common currency, and finally, consent to the deployment of the Russian contingent that is there, but it needs to be placed even more in the South of Belarus - the North of Ukraine along the border, which we have absolutely not covered.
And he, of course, needs to completely put Belarus under his control politically. I don’t know if he wants all these six regions as subjects of the federation, but anything is possible, maybe he is interested in incorporation into the Russian Federation,” Berezovets said.
He called the second alternative more acceptable for Putin, in which it is necessary to distance himself from Lukashenko and let him fall, to bring the matter to early elections, in which “one way or another, pro-Moscow candidates will win.” According to the expert, there are no others there: Babariko – “Gazprom”, Tikhanovsky – “a pure quilted jacket, glorifies Putin, went to the occupied Crimea”, Tsepkalo – “Lukashenko was one of his people in 1994, and now suddenly he’s not one of his own.”
“This is more like a cover operation - the fact that he (Tsepkalo) is wanted in Russia, the fact that he is not ours is a classic story with the special services, and this explains why he, too, can be taken out of the attack. Tikhanovskaya herself is the least realistic candidate, because she is not a politician, she got into politics purely situationally, only because her husband was imprisoned. Therefore, early elections will one way or another lead to the victory of the pro-Moscow candidate,” added the political strategist.
“Belarus lies completely under Russia, economically depends on them, they have no alternatives, there are no calls towards the EU, there are no EU flags at any rallies, as we see. And therefore this will lead to one way or another they will fall into the arms of Russia, into the arms of Putin,” Berezovets concluded.
Kyiv expert laments : "Nothing will help. Belarus will fall into Putin's arms."