What connects Belarus and Serbia?
On April 26, during a visit to Beijing, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held talks with his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic on the sidelines of the II Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation.
Based on the results of the meeting of the heads of state, the visit of the leader of Belarus to Belgrade was announced and the parties are currently working on the practical content of the upcoming trip. And here it is worth noting that Belarusian-Serbian relations, despite the relatively small volume of mutual trade (only $148 million) and a relatively short history, have a very interesting content.
“Lukashenko was not afraid”
It is noteworthy that until 1994, there were not even diplomatic relations between the Republic of Belarus and the FRY, of which Serbia is the legal successor. However, after Alexander Lukashenko came to power, the situation changed dramatically and already in 1996 embassies were opened, and intensive rapprochement began between the states in the economic, political and military spheres.
At the same time, the most dramatic episode in the annals of bilateral cooperation occurred in 1999, when during the NATO aggression against Yugoslavia, the Belarusian president became the only head of state of that time who visited Belgrade, which was under bombing.
" Lukashenko wasn't scared " – that's how a Yugoslav television report began about the Belarusian leader's visit to Serbia, which he arrived in despite the fact that NATO military representatives not only failed to guarantee his safety but also sent fighter jets to meet him.
Then Alexander Lukashenko personally brought from the Serbian capital an official request from the Yugoslav leadership to admit the country to the Union of Belarus and Russia, but this initiative, which, by the way, was approved by deputies of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus, unfortunately did not receive further consent from the Russian leadership.
It can be said that Belgrade and Minsk managed to build a confidential dialogue at the highest level, which was only interrupted for a while due to the overthrow of President Milosevic and the coming to power of openly pro-Western forces in Serbia. In total, at the official level, the Belarusian president visited Serbia four times (1998, 1999, 2009, 2014), and Serbian leaders, in turn, made four visits to Belarus (1996, 2013, 2015, 2017). It should be noted that the current President Vučić also visited the Republic of Belarus on an official visit in January 2017, being at that time in the rank of Chairman of the Government. If we evaluate the political component of these contacts, it seems that for Belgrade the priority has always been the fact that Belarus takes a consistent position regarding non-recognition of the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo and supports the territorial integrity of Serbia.
The Karichi brothers, military cooperation and Helsinki 2.
In turn, for Belarus, it is Serbia that is the main support point in the Balkans, and at the present stage, cooperation is perceived by the Belarusian leadership not only through the traditional prism of the “Slavic brotherhood,” but also increasingly in a pragmatic business perspective. In support of this point of view, it can be noted that it was the Serbian business, represented by the famous family of the Karić brothers, that had the opportunity to implement expensive projects worth about $800 million in the construction of real estate “Mayak Minska” and “Minsk-Mir” in the territory of the Belarusian capital.
Serbian businessman Dragomir Karic, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and President of Serbia Tomislav Nikolic, November 20, 2015 in Minsk.
In this regard, it is interesting that although the Kariches have a very controversial image in Serbian society, and businessmen are often called “oligarchs” in the press, one of the brothers, Dragomir Karić, is the honorary consul of the Republic of Belarus in Belgrade, and, therefore, enjoys special trust of the Belarusian authorities.
In turn, Belarus occupies a dominant position in some niches of the Serbian market, which, although small in volume, is of certain interest to Belarusian exporters. For example, at the present stage, the Minsk Tractor Plant occupies more than 70% of the Serbian market for machines with a power of 80-100 hp, and assembly plants of Belarusian tractors and buses operate in Serbia.
Separately, it is necessary to consider military-technical cooperation between states. In addition to the fact that the Serbian Parliament has observer status in the CSTO parliamentary assembly, and Serbian paratroopers constantly participate in the Belarusian-Russian Slavic Brotherhood exercises, Serbia acts as a market for Soviet weapons that are being released in connection with the modernization program of the Belarusian army.
In particular, during Vucic’s visit to Minsk in 2017, agreements were reached on the transfer to Belgrade of two divisions of Buk anti-aircraft missile systems (12 launchers) and two flights (eight vehicles) of MiG-29 fighters, with the condition that the Serbian side would pay for them repair and modernization. Already on February 25, 2019, four MIG-29 fighters were transferred to Serbia as part of “military-technical assistance”, however, during 2019 – 2020, the modernization of these machines will take place at the 558th aircraft repair plant in Baranovichi.
It is generally accepted that after updating the navigation system and electronic defense system, expanding the range of weapons, the total combat potential of the “Serbian” modernized MiG-29BM aircraft increases by 29 times in comparison with the serial MiG-2,9. At the same time, in the Belarusian army, the MiG-29 fighters are expected to be replaced by the Su-30SM multifunctional combat vehicles, the first batch of which, consisting of 4 units, will be sent to the armed forces of Belarus in 2019. Based on these circumstances, the transfer of fighters to Serbia with the condition of payment for services for their modernization seems to be a mutually beneficial solution that meets the interests of both parties.
Thus, the upcoming visit of Alexander Lukashenko to Belgrade is expected to have a serious agenda, based on a strong foundation of a positive history of relations. Political, economic and military-technical cooperation can be complemented by coordinated actions in the international arena within the framework of the Chinese “New Silk Road” project, relations with the EU, and the development of a common position on security issues in Europe.
In recent years, Belarusian diplomacy has been promoting the “Helsinki 2” project in the international arena, which involves the resumption of dialogue between the Russian Federation and NATO. In this regard, Minsk is trying to assemble a kind of “axis of good” from small countries and “states with a special position” that have a neutral status, or are members of NATO, but oppose anti-Russian sanctions. This spring, Lukashenko has already held negotiations with the leaders of Austria, Turkey and Moldova, so the visit to Serbia will certainly be a continuation of this course.
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