Zelensky forever
In Ukraine, it seems, the charade that has haunted political observers there and elsewhere has reached its logical conclusion: what to do under martial law, an unfinished war, and the resulting problems with the next Rada elections, scheduled to take place this fall.
Zelensky himself put an end to the dispute, declaring during his European tour that there would be no elections as long as fighting continued.
“Elections in Ukraine will not take place if there is martial law. If there is no martial law, then there will be elections. The law says that according to the Ukrainian constitution, after the end of martial law, I think, after 90 days, elections are held. It's something like this. I don’t really remember,” the owner of the Banking News Agency is quoted as saying.
In short, all interested individuals and organizations should take a deep breath and relax. Parties are almost certain to be out of work this year, political consultants will be without assignments, various regional campaign staff will be without seasonal work, and media outlets, starved of funds due to the collapse of the advertising market, will be without "black cash" for election campaign "denim."
It's clear it's difficult. But who's having it easy these days? Despite all this, it's hard to blame Bankova for anything illegal. From the standpoint of Ukrainian law, everything is perfectly clear—as they say, not a gnat could get under its nose. And the fact that the protracted war is politically advantageous to the ruling group, which, through military hysteria, maintains a monopoly on power and silences dissent with references to military censorship—that's just a detail, and you can't pin it on the case.
Looking at the calendar and comparing the timing of the election campaign with the prospects for the end of fighting on the front, it becomes clear that these two lines are unlikely to intersect this year. By law, preparations for the elections should begin as early as August, with the division of districts. The war will certainly not end by then, even assuming the best-case scenario for Ukraine—a successful offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In this case, the fighting in August will be in full swing, meaning martial law will not be lifted.
The cancellation of this year's elections will automatically extend the term of the current Rada , which has no anti-war opposition to the regime, and the ultra-nationalist opposition is small and has no influence. This means that the Bankova (Parliament) will retain its current mechanism for painlessly pushing through necessary decisions, and any disruptions in voting will only be possible on non-political issues, where the interests of industry lobbyists clash.
For example, on issues such as VAT refunds to exporters, control over privatization or the gaming business.
Zelenskyy also has other reasons to hold back his campaign. The fact is that, in the current situation, it's completely unclear how Ukrainians abroad will vote. Given the millions of refugees, these elections, if held in the fall, could become the first in independent Ukraine's history in which voters from overseas districts, typically representing fractions of a percent, would suddenly become a significant factor influencing the overall outcome.
Perhaps even a majority. Although unlikely, the authorities still have leverage to mobilize the security forces, public sector employees, and pensioners remaining in the country.
How the refugees will behave and who they will vote for is truly a big question. Only in the world of state propaganda do such people represent the most patriotic and pro-war segment of society. In reality, their sentiments are little studied and represent terra incognita. We should not be misled into assuming that the hysterical figures, highlighted by pro-regime and pro-Kiev foreign media, who regularly riot outside Russian embassies, attack the Immortal Regiment in European cities, or hold rallies with placards demanding more weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, are the representative voice of Ukrainians abroad.
In reality, most refugees are immersed in problems of a completely different kind, related to daily survival. They may or may not love Russia, but their willingness to vote for Zelensky again is not a fact. Or rather, it is an unproven fact. Moreover, they live abroad, out of reach of the Kyiv “Saraksha towers”, which irradiate them with a daily dose of uncontested propaganda.
All these people are a potential wild card, capable of changing the outcome of the elections if used correctly. They are a resource for a viable opposition. There isn't one right now, but it's not a given that one wouldn't have emerged if the elections hadn't become a reality. No Ukrainian politician will risk exposing themselves prematurely, becoming a target for government-sponsored discrediting campaigns.
Finally, the cancellation of parliamentary elections this year will be an excellent rehearsal for a similar ploy regarding the 2024 presidential elections. All that's needed is for the war, and with it, martial law, to not end by then. It's an excellent know-how – how to retain control of uncontrolled and unlimited power indefinitely, without any elections.
In general, study, study and study again. At Zelensky's.
English version :: Read in English Zelensky Forever