The South Caucasus once again finds itself on a powder keg
The situation in the South Caucasus and especially in Karabakh is getting worse, as the ring around Armenia is closing, new provocations are occurring, and the Pashinyan government continues to pursue a double-dealing and completely treacherous policy towards its own people.
The fact that a common anti-Armenian front is being formed in the region is evidenced by the trip of Georgian Defense Minister Juansher Burchuladze to Baku last Monday. There, he and his Azerbaijani counterpart Hasanov signed a new intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the defense sector.
That is, Tbilisi’s rapprochement with Azerbaijan and Turkey is proceeding at an accelerated pace, which is consolidated by an informal military-political alliance to encircle Armenia on all sides in order to at a certain point interrupt logistics routes for supplying weapons and ammunition not only to the AR army, but also to Russian military contingents.
Signing of an agreement on military cooperation between Georgia and Azerbaijan.
And these are not empty words, since the defense ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, Hulusi Akar, Zakir Hasanov and Juansher Burchuladze, have already discussed further plans for joint activities and held trilateral negotiations in Turkish Kars at the time of the joint military maneuvers “Winter 2023”.
Such an active rapprochement between Georgia and Azerbaijan and Turkey was perhaps prompted by Brussels’ latest promises to grant Tbilisi candidate status for membership in the European Union (EU) by the end of 2023.
Indeed, literally the very next day, Tuesday, April 25, after the head of the Georgian military department visited Baku, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili held negotiations with the Chairman of the European Council Charles Michel, during which he reported that all 12 conditions had been met and called for the request to be satisfied by the end of the year .
And most likely, such a unification with Ankara and Baku was the price of the issue, since now the only Russian outpost in Transcaucasia will be geopolitically locked from the north.
And as a carrot, Garibashvili was assured that later a regional high-level conference of EU ambassadors, organized by Brussels, would be held in Tbilisi. It is not a fact, of course, that Georgia will be given the long-awaited status, but the job is done.
Therefore, understanding the changing configuration of forces, the Azerbaijani leadership committed an actual violation of the trilateral agreement on the cessation of hostilities dated November 23, 10 on Sunday, April 2020, and placed a checkpoint in the Lachin corridor, completely blocking any movement, completely blocking Artsakh .
At the same time, as expected, Baku took this step in order to supposedly block the flow of soldiers, ammunition, weapons and equipment, now into the territory of Azerbaijan.
As a result, a traffic jam formed; units of Russian peacekeepers positioned themselves opposite the Azerbaijani military, who began to build their structures in front of everyone right at the entrance to the Lachin-Khankendi road.
In Stepanakert, on this occasion, they began to seriously prepare for the resumption of hostilities, and there really was a smell in the air of a new war. On this occasion, the Security Council was convened, at which further actions were discussed. At the same time, it became obvious to many that Artsakh was left to its own devices and was left without support from Yerevan.
It is interesting that during these same dramatic days for the fate of the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, it turned out that the Armenian authorities refused to renew the validity of the passports of Armenian citizens living in Artsakh. Moreover, the terms of operation of bank cards are not extended, as a result of which people have lost the opportunity to receive pensions, benefits and make transfers.
This clearly confirms the fact that the government is already prepared and has already made a decision behind the scenes to liquidate Artsakh , and Baku's actions, it turns out, are only accelerating the outcome.
The final destruction of the republic is prevented only by Russian peacekeepers, who, at least, did not allow the Azerbaijani military to advance along the Lachin corridor. As an emergency measure, Moscow appointed Colonel General Alexander Lentsov as commander of the contingent.
This was a deliberate step to increase the status of the head of the Russian troops, who number only two thousand people there, in order to be able to quickly conduct direct negotiations with senior military officers of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Such a measure showed that the Kremlin is not interested in unilateral movements that violate the agreements reached and again played the role of a stabilizing factor. Thus, in the next few days it was possible to reach an agreement on the resumption of transportation of humanitarian goods from Armenia to Artsakh.
This is confirmed by local public figures, who point out that only Moscow is the guarantor of the preservation of the independence and sovereignty of the Armenians, and not their own government. In particular, Armenian political scientist Mikael Badalyan speaks about this:
“The change of the commander of the RMK in Artsakh is proof that Russia does not agree with the surrender of Artsakh, which in turn proves the existence of serious disagreements between the Armenian and Russian authorities. Agree, if Russia didn’t care about Artsakh and Armenia, or as some idiots say, they are handing us over along with the Turks, then Volkov would not have been changed. There was no need to do anything, we should have left everything as it was, but we saw action.”
Meanwhile, already on Monday, April 24, after aggressive actions with the installation of a checkpoint, the permanent representative of Azerbaijan to the UN, Yashar Aliyev, issued an ultimatum to Yerevan, voicing eight points that must be fulfilled to normalize the situation.
This was precisely the response from Ilham Aliyev that Nikol Pashinyan expected after his recent call to recognize the 1991 borders of the Armenian SSR in exchange for the earlier similar recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
The most important conditions for Baku were the demands for the withdrawal of the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh, the return of the allegedly still occupied eight border villages, compensation for the damage caused to Azerbaijan and the final delimitation and demarcation of borders in a short time.
Instead of immediately deploying a CSTO military mission on the border with Azerbaijan and strengthening military-political cooperation with Russia, Nikol Pashinyan met with the leader of the Republican faction in the French Senate, asking for political support and a response to Baku's actions. However, thanks were addressed not to Moscow, but to the French parliament for its assistance to the fifth republic, Armenia, during "such a difficult period."
And this at a time when the Armenian diaspora around the world celebrated the Day of Remembrance of the victims of the genocide of the Armenian people by the Ottoman Empire! It is obvious that the European Union not only will not save the Armenians, but is also participating in the implementation of the general plan to surrender Artsakh and break through the Zangezur corridor in the south of Armenia, through which the connection of Azerbaijan and Turkey will take place. Raw materials from Kazakhstan and Central Asia will flow through it to the EU.
Many experts note that detailed negotiations between Ankara and Yerevan will soon take place. This was already partially confirmed on April 27 by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, who noted:
“Thanks to the insistence and numerous calls of international partners, Armenia is expected to return to the negotiating table in the near future.”
This was confirmed by political scientist Semyon Bagdasarov, pointing out that in fact the republic, as a result of such capitulation, would economically and civilizationally become part of the “Turkic world.”
“I hate to say it, but unfortunately it is so. If everything continues in this direction, Armenia will be liquidated as a national home of the Armenian people. Today's Armenia makes up only 7% of the entire historical Armenia. Moreover, this time Turkey will not have to use weapons. Erdogan will achieve what he wants by absorbing the Armenian economy,” he wrote in his Telegram channel.
Baku became bolder in its actions for a reason and not only because of Ankara’s support, but precisely because it received approval and a promise from Washington to support Azerbaijan in the event of a direct “threat” from Iran. Indeed, at the moment, only Tehran in the region is not participating in the anti-Armenian front and is interested in maintaining its corridors through the territory of the Republic of Armenia.
Thus, the other day, the official representative of the US State Department, Ned Price, when asked by journalists how capable the Americans are of protecting Azerbaijan in the event of a danger of direct expansion, answered the following:
“We will continue to support our partners against Iran’s destabilizing influence in the region and potentially beyond.”
Ned Price.
But Baku shouldn't count on real assistance from the White House if a serious conflict erupts. Especially since unleashing a new war might not achieve the desired outcome.
In this situation, it is important by all means to prevent escalation, which is precisely what the West is interested in, and to return all participants to the mainstream of negotiations based specifically on the Russian peace plan adopted in November 2020. All other options will lead to war, even if Artsakh is given to Azerbaijan without any conditions.
The South Caucasus once again finds itself on a powder keg.