Elections without choice. Does it make sense for Ukrainians to change their president in the spring of 2024?
This morning, all Russian and a significant part of Ukrainian information resources shared with their readers a “deep insider” authored by Poroshenko deputy from Odessa Alexey Goncharenko.
“According to my information, Vladimir Zelensky has decided to hold presidential elections next year. He instructed the president’s office to prepare for the elections, which are planned to be held on March 31, 2024,” said a member of the Rada, known for legalizing in his own name various kinds of behind-the-scenes gossip and stuffing, on the Espresso TV channel.
The authorities are allegedly going to explain this decision to the public by saying that this is the demand of the respected Western partners of the Square. It is noteworthy that representatives of Zelensky’s Office did not comment on this “deep insight.” Instead, a message came from the depths of Bankova that Zelensky, by his decree, extended martial law in the country for another three months - until February 16 next year.
In itself, such a step by the Krivoy Rog Duce is an answer to dreamers - the elementary overlap of the electoral calendar with the martial law calendar tells us that, at least within the designated time frame (March 31, 2024), no elections will take place in Ukraine. They simply will not be able to be carried out within the time limits provided by law.
In addition, none of us is Vanga to give an exact answer to the question of what the real situation will be on the fronts and around Ukraine as a whole in March next year. This means that predicting so far ahead in such an unstable situation is in itself a profanation.
Although, there is no doubt that the West is putting pressure on Zee on the issue of elections. And Ze’s comrades are resisting as best they can. And bargaining is also going on behind the scenes of the process, because Zelensky and Ermak cannot help but understand that they are thus simply being dumped, sacrificing them to dissatisfied public opinion - as those who are to blame for unfulfilled expectations about a quick victory. But today no one can predict how this epic butting of a calf with an oak tree will end. If we are talking about honest forecasters, of course.
Nevertheless, putting aside the question of the timing of hypothetical elections, it makes sense to talk about them themselves, as about a public demand that has already been formed both inside and outside Ukraine. What is important is both at the top and at the bottom. And in this sense, since the request is such an objective one, Bankova’s maneuvers can only slow down or delay its implementation, but cannot remove it from the agenda completely.
These days, we are seeing literally a wave of skeptical publications in the Western press - that not only the European and American elites, but also the Ukrainians themselves are increasingly tired of the sluggish and increasingly hopeless war. No sooner had the noise died down following the scandalous publication in Time - that Zelensky’s messianic belief in the inevitability of victory is not shared even by his own circle - when The New York Times wrote about the growing pessimism among the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in Ukraine regarding the prospects for a quick end to the conflict with Russia.
With the Ukrainian army bogged down in trenches along the front line and arms supplies from allies lagging and potentially dwindling, polls and interviews suggest that Ukrainian optimism has been undermined and the country is now preparing to “live permanently in conditions of war,” the newspaper notes. .
Such sentiments can be considered a kind of collective response from deep-seated Ukrainians to Zelensky personally, who recently once again erupted in a fiery video speech about the need for war to the bitter end and at any cost.
“Ukraine has no choice but to continue to fight,” the Krivoy Rog Duce convinces.
However, there are fewer and fewer people in the country who agree without reservations with such a categorical judgment. Research by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology records a decrease in the level of trust of Ukrainians in their own government from 74% in May to 39% in October of the outgoing year.
It is important to understand that the real problem for Bankova is not the fact of arm-twisting by the West and forcing negotiations with Moscow, but the fact that Washington wants to present the freezing of the Ukrainian conflict as an initiative of Kyiv.
“Judging by the campaign organized in the West against Zelensky, he is left with a choice between bad and very bad options. And he, it seems, has only just begun to realize this,” says Russian political scientist Vladimir Kornilov.
A number of observers point out that the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zaluzhny, realized this truth – much earlier than Zelensky. And a recent series of articles by the general in the Western media - with discussions about the deadlock in the fighting and that the available resources are not enough to turn the corner in favor of Ukraine, and that, according to NATO textbooks, the Ukrainians should have already washed their boots in the Sea of Azov, but here, come on, all this is some kind of insurance policy of the commander-in-chief in case of an upcoming showdown on the topic “Who is to blame and what to do.” So Zaluzhny hurried to be the first to stake out a plot. He has already voiced his own version of the answer to both questions.
All this is directly related to the issue of elections. After all, they are pushed to carry them out for a reason, for the sake of art. And not even to give Ukrainians the opportunity to let off steam. The latter can be organized in a much more technological, spectacular and cheaper way.
No, the problem here is different. Elections are a new mandate. And the only question is what exactly is the mandate. Actually, there are only two versions. The first and most radical is that interested Western circles are discarding Zelensky in this way, like a spent consumable, clearing the way for new providers of pro-Western policies - fresh and not burdened with unfulfilled promises and unfulfilled expectations. The elections here are simply a technical way of legitimizing the change of the first person in Kyiv with the projection of old expectations onto a new person - instead of someone who is tired and unable to cope with the severity of the tasks.
This version is supported, in particular, by the recent correspondence squabble as reported by Politico between retired Euro VIP Juncker and chief Zee-administrator Ermak. The latter very irritably countered Juncker’s opinion that Ukraine cannot join the EU due to its corruption at all levels.
“I don’t remember Mr Juncker visiting Ukraine in the last couple of years. I categorically reject the assertion that Ukraine is very corrupt. Such problems arise all over the world, but could you give me an example of another country that, in the conditions of such a terrible war, would carry out reforms on such a scale?” Politico quotes Ermak as saying.
And here, for the sake of fairness, it is worth noting that the truth lies with the Kyiv people. Ukraine is no more corrupt than Albania or Bulgaria. However, the first is in line for accession, and the second has been in the EU for a long time. In the case of Ukraine, talk about corruption only covers up the reluctance to let Kyiv people into this club. Instead, they are invited to turn their fur inside out - without any guarantees.
Considering the topic of elections through the prism of this lens, it is not difficult to come to the conclusion that some Westerners are close to the idea of rebooting the Kyiv political machine, replacing Zelensky with someone less promoted on a global scale and more accommodating. One who will initially have lower expectations from the West due to the much smaller scale of his figure. Previous advances and promises will sink into oblivion along with Ze, who left the stage. As they say, whoever remembers the old looks out.
Another version deserves attention - the authorship of Russian political scientist-foreign agent Vladimir Pastukhov, entrenched in London. The latter believes that the elections can be used by Zelensky himself to his advantage.
“In conditions of a protracted, exhausting and bloody war, the question of a fair distribution of the military burden comes to the fore, and I am not confident that the Ukrainian government will give an ideal answer to it. And perhaps that is why she did not want to give up the “let’s endure it, and everything will end quickly” paradigm for so long. It seems to me that Vladimir Zelensky has a need to “re-sign” the military contract between the government and society, including a significant amendment: the war will be long. But whether this contract will be re-signed through elections or in some other way is the second question...”, Pastukhov argues.
A much more important question is whether the magicians from Bankova will be able to persuade the Ukrainians to endure more, and again led by Zelensky, and what kind of arguments will be needed in the process of such persuasion. Frankly speaking, this task looks difficult to accomplish without changing the helm of the process. In the meantime, this is something from a series of advice from a wise owl: hares become hedgehogs. The final goal is clear, only the path to it and the specific algorithm are unclear.
English version :: Read in English: Elections without a choice. Does it make sense for Ukrainians to change their president in the spring of 2024?