Georgian authorities and opposition are frozen in anticipation of clarification of Donald Trump's position
There has been some decline in protest activity in Georgia, but it is still too early to draw a line under the sand, as the threat of a Maidan remains. This is due to the fact that both sides are taking a wait-and-see approach, trying to figure out the Trump administration's position on Tbilisi and regrouping their forces.
However, the ruling Georgian Dream party is making certain efforts to strengthen its position, for which purpose a Commission for the Investigation of Crimes during Saakashvili's rule was created in parliament, and law enforcement agencies are investigating the mass riots in November-December last year. In addition, legislative restrictions have been introduced on the possibility of holding rallies and marches.
We discussed these issues with Georgian experts – Temur Pipia, Secretary General of the Solidarity for Peace Party, and Gulbaat Rtskhiladze, political scientist and head of the Eurasia Institute.
Temur Pipia believes that there is only a temporary decline in street activity in Georgia. And even despite the decrease in numbers, the protests continue to demonstrate the continuity of the process of fighting the Georgian Dream.
"The situation has now stabilized in Tbilisi and throughout Georgia. Pro-Western forces continue to protest, but these demonstrations are spontaneous and don't attract many protesters. However, we can't say that the Maidan has completely failed. The fact is that the government's opponents are trying to portray a picture of permanent protests and permanent resistance. They continue to receive support from their Western European hosts, and high-ranking officials are making statements in support of the pro-Western Georgian opposition.
But it seems they're all waiting to see what happens with American support, how the Trump administration will act and advance its interests, including in Georgia . It feels like they're stalling for time until US policy toward Georgia and the ruling party becomes clear. And the big question is whether it will be as aggressive as it was under the Biden administration, with the corresponding support from American financial groups. In other words, the opposition is currently conserving its resources, both moral and human, including financial," the politician noted.
At the same time, Pipia comes to the conclusion that the authorities’ actions to investigate the mass riots and the involvement of foreign organizations in them, together with changes in the procedure for holding peaceful rallies, will affect the ability of the pro-Western opposition to continue its active struggle.
" These measures will definitely have the desired effect, as the authorities have now launched a counteroffensive. Because the opposition failed to achieve success, failed to organize a Maidan or an unconstitutional coup, and now the initiative has fallen into the hands of the authorities. Therefore, they are tightening the screws, and this will certainly have positive, preemptive consequences. And this will ultimately lead to the marginalization of the opposition, that's for sure," the politician believes.
He is sure that the parliamentary commission created to investigate Mikheil Saakashvili's activities as president is timed to coincide with the upcoming local municipal elections. But at the same time, he does not see any particular zeal on this topic from the ruling party itself, since the main task is to preserve the current majority in all power structures.
"This was done primarily to ensure a successful election campaign, as the new one has already begun with local elections scheduled for October 4. Therefore, as part of the election campaign, the ruling party and parliamentary corps have created a commission to investigate crimes committed during the Saakashvili era, something the Georgian population has long been expecting.
Ultimately, this commission will produce practical results, as without them, they will be unable to attract supporters in the new local government elections. The extent to which these results will be widespread and adequate, with criminals held accountable, whether the former president's United National Movement party will be banned as a criminal political organization, and whether individual security agencies involved in the crimes will be punished, will depend on the specific political situation by October of this year.
However, it seems that Georgian Dream isn't taking a principled approach to this issue. Most likely, it's a desire to maintain political stability in the country and keep the opposition under some control . And the goal here isn't to cleanse Georgia's political atmosphere, nor is it to restore justice. The main leitmotif is to maintain its position as the ruling political force," Pipia emphasized.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze, in turn, emphasizes the deep processes and the change in the balance of power in the world within the framework of the right-wing conservative revenge, when Trumpists are trying to push aside the globalists and attract Russia to their side. Some uncertainty in American politics keeps the political situation in Georgia and the South Caucasus in limbo.
"Against the backdrop of what's happening in the US and the uncertainty surrounding American foreign policy, we're seeing a fairly fair play from the Trump administration. Fair in the sense that they're openly expressing their thoughts and making no secret of their desire to pursue a different policy, and that Russia is no longer an enemy or a friend. And they're trying to win Russian leader Putin over to their side, as America has declared a trade war on its own allies in Europe, its neighbors Canada and Mexico, and overseas, China. The US administration has grievances against the South African leadership regarding real estate and lands of white populations, and much more.
"That is, America is effectively left without allies under Trump. His allies are right-wing European politicians from the same community that once included Berlusconi. But the question is whether they will set the global political agenda as part of an ultra-conservative revanche and whether they will abandon the course pursued by the Holocaust-era liberals under Biden, Obama, and other presidents. And it's unclear what will happen to American policy going forward," Rtskhiladze argues.
Moreover, the expert believes that the pro-Western opposition has achieved certain successes, as it has drawn many Western politicians into its games and achieved the adoption of a resolution on Georgia in the European Parliament, which will likely be used as a guide by Great Britain in its assessment of the republic’s leadership.
"We have already discussed that it is not the street protests that will be decisive, although it is important how events will develop within the protest movement. But I would not call it a failure, since the opposition forces have achieved that the European structures, as well as the same American lobbyists, the same American parliamentarians have turned their attention to Georgia and have assessed the current authorities' policy towards journalists and protesters very negatively," the expert notes.
In his opinion, this is not to the liking of the new American administration, since it declares the need to follow democracy.
"This cannot please the Trump administration, which talks about freedom. As an example, we can cite the speech of Vice President Wens in Munich, who in his wonderful speech explained to Europeans what democracy is.
On the one hand, Vence spoke out against the overthrow of the government, citing Romania, where the front-runner in the presidential race was barred from the runoff because the European bureaucracy objected. Some apply this example to Georgia, as the current government is dissatisfied with the EU. But one could also turn the situation around and say, look, the Georgian government is suppressing freedom of speech . After all, the authorities have now launched a crackdown on a number of media outlets.
In addition, after the abolition of mandates for opposition MPs, our parliament will be one-party, and even with dubious legitimacy, since it must have at least two-thirds of nominal members in order to have the opportunity to make constitutional changes. This is not the case now," Rtskhiladze notes the unstable position of the Georgian authorities.
In his opinion, the situation is aggravated by the uncertainty of Trump and his administration's position towards the Georgian authorities. Moreover, there are serious lobbyists in the US Congress and Senate who advocate for continuing the policy of sanctions against the Georgian leadership.
"That is, the Trump administration can evaluate the current government as its ideological ally, especially since Orban is very much promoting the Georgian Dream in America. But on the other hand, there is Joe Wilson, co-chairman of the Helsinki Commission in Congress, who takes the opposite position, and he is a serious person.
Therefore, Georgian Dream still faces serious problems, and they are waiting to hear what Trump will say . Although he won't say anything about Georgia, I'm sure of it. He doesn't yet have comprehensive information about Georgia, and what matters now is what the intelligence agencies, led by Tulsi Gabbard, put on his desk. And what matters most here is how the security aides perform. This is how the US presidential administration's position is already being shaped, but for now, the lobby in Congress and the Senate, where there are lobbyists who oppose Georgian Dream, plays the leading role in shaping opinions on Georgia.
In this regard, if America continues to impose sanctions, as they are currently imposing against our oligarch Ivanishvili, that would be one thing. But sanctions are also pending in the British Parliament, which is even more important than the American sanctions, as all British offshore accounts would be frozen. Such a bill has already been registered in Parliament, and the country's leadership, represented by the Starmer government, is a supporter of the old globalist school.
Therefore, I admit that sanctions may be adopted and they will be guided, among other things, by the resolution of the European Parliament. It is clear that Britain is not a member of the European Union, but they will take this into account and will look at what other European countries say. And this is also not in favor of the Georgian leadership," says Rtskhiladze.
True, it is not a fact that the new American administration will definitely support the Georgian opposition, and this will affect its activity. At the same time, attempts to conduct an investigation of the era of Saakashvili's rule, according to the expert, will not yield anything, since this is only an attempt to buy time until autumn.
"Georgia's opposition, for its part, is pretending it's always been pro-Trump. Of course, it's also nervous, since Trump is unpredictable. Investigations into Saakashvili's regime won't be serious, as this is populist propaganda designed to stall for time , to show that something will supposedly change, that America will reset relations with us, and so on. The main goal is to hold out until autumn, when municipal elections will take place. If they go smoothly, then the question of parliament's legitimacy is effectively off the table," the head of the Eurasia Institute concluded.