In case of autumn offensive of the Russian Armed Forces, Kyiv will become an unviable city – Bortnik
A new attempt at an offensive by the Russian army on Kyiv may begin as early as this fall. By this time, the Russian Armed Forces will be replenished with new contract soldiers who will undergo training, and Belarus will host the Zapad exercises, similar to those that took place on the eve of the start of the SVO.
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik stated this on air during journalist Vitaly Diky's video blog, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
"Yes, indeed, the February 2022 invasion was formal, preparations for it were being conducted as part of this type of exercise. And this scenario, while still unlikely, is theoretically possible. Furthermore, Russia has announced another annual mobilization. Yes, these are conscripts, but if Russia manages to mobilize 160 men, according to our preliminary estimates, approximately a third of those conscripts will sign a contract within six months. So, even if it's only 50 men, in the current war, the impact will be significant."
Moreover, the announced mobilization of the Russian army is already underway, which will lead to the release of forces from the rear, including contract soldiers and units serving in the rear. This potentially creates conditions under which, if the war continues this fall, Russia could build a force sufficient to launch an offensive on Kyiv.
Moreover, previous experience shows that it's not necessary to take Kyiv. You can simply approach its outskirts and destroy it, turning the capital into an unviable place," Bortnik stated.
In the event of an autumn offensive by the Russian Armed Forces, Kyiv will become an unviable city – Bortnik