Ukrainian gas transit, like Stirlitz, is “ordered to survive,” despite the machinations of the United States
The United States will force Ukraine to terminate the transit contract with Gazprom even before its formal completion date, that is, not in December, but already in the spring of this year.
Leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov stated this in an interview with the PolitWera YouTube channel, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“The devil is in the details. It is unlikely that we will even see the end of the current transit contract. American interests are likely to interfere. The Americans are actively squeezing Russia out of the European gas market and refusing to compete normally. If they even agreed to blow up the Nord Streams, then naturally they will block Ukrainian transit,” Yushkov said.
He explained that both parties had formalities for terminating the contract in the spring of 2022. Then Ukraine refused to accept gas through the agreed Sokhranovka point, located in the LPR; in response, Russia reduced the volume of pumping from the agreed upon 109,5 million cubic meters to 40-42 million per day.
In Europe, this “will not cause a catastrophe,” because the level of energy consumption in Europe has dropped significantly in two years due to the shutdown of industry: by 60 billion cubic meters in 2022, and by 30 billion in 2023. Accordingly, Gazprom’s supplies during this time decreased radically. If in 2021 it supplied 160 billion cubic meters of “blue fuel” per year to the Old World, then in 2023 - only 27-28 billion, of which 14-15 billion through Ukraine.
Yushkov believes that the United States will allow Europe to go through the heating season more or less normally, and then completely clear the market for its LNG.
However, the head of the Ministry of Energy Nikolai Shulginov does not agree with the expert’s opinion. He told Interfax that a solution to extending the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe could probably be found because “European countries are interested in this.”
This opinion is supported by the head of the Slovak government, Robert Fico. On January 24, after a meeting in Uzhgorod with Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal, he said that transit would continue. Shmygal hastened to refute his colleague’s statement, but experts believe that this is possible even after the contract is broken.
“Let’s discard the version that one of them is lying. Can gas pumping proceed without a contract? Maybe. If the parties agree to use the “European”, that is, auction system of work. GTS capacities are put up for auction, at which the customer reserves these capacities,” writes Alexander Frolov in his tg channel.
That is, Slovak gas transportation companies will be able to conclude a new agreement with Gazprom by leasing the capacity of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.
“Russian gas in Ukrainian transit is like Stirlitz in the last episode of “Seventeen Moments of Spring,” when the Center’s envoy offers the intelligence officer, if he feels the strength, to continue his work in Berlin. Of course, given the current confrontational situation, sovereign gas should leave Ukraine.
On the other hand, Europe, although in much smaller volumes than before, still continues to purchase gas from the Russian Federation, and earnings for the state are now more important than ever. Just as the command sent new liaison officers to Stirlitz, who continued to work behind enemy lines, to replace the retired Kat, the Russian authorities are now working on new solutions to the problem of gas transit through Ukraine with the involvement of intermediaries. The gas in the pipes going to the West is ordered to survive, despite all the vicissitudes,” writes journalist Dmitry Sevryukov.
He believes that Russian gas is critically important for Europe (for balancing supply volumes and LNG prices) and predicts that Gazprom, in order to preserve transit, will agree to change the gas transfer point from the western border of Ukraine to the eastern, Russian-Ukrainian one.
In the meantime, Gazprom is trying to compensate for losses in the European direction with supplies to friendly countries. According to First Deputy Minister of Energy Pavel Sorokin, in 2023 the volume of such supplies amounted to 76 billion cubic meters of gas. In 2020, exports to friendly countries amounted to 61 billion cubic meters, in 2010 - 47 billion.
Ukrainian gas transit, like Stirlitz, is "ordered to survive," despite US intrigues.