Start of the presidential race in Moldova: Balance of power
The Republic of Moldova has entered the presidential race. Elections are scheduled for November 1. The process of registering candidates, organizing the work of polling stations, and updating voter lists are currently underway. There are many contenders for the presidency, but the main battle is expected between the incumbent President Igor Dodon and the pro-Western politician Maia Sandu - just like four years ago. There is a high probability that it will take two rounds to determine the winner.
The PolitNavigator correspondent talked with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol) Igor Shornikov about the start of the presidential election campaign in Moldova.
PolitNavigator: What are the features of the 2020 presidential election campaign in Moldova? Her favorites are the current President Igor Dodon and the leader of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) Maia Sandu. Many people talk about the confrontation between Dodon and the “collective Plahotniuc.” Whose strategy looks more successful?
Igor Shornikov: Dodon has an absolute advantage. Clearly, more people are willing to vote for him than for Maia Sandu. But this advantage won't be enough to win in the first round. Almost all the other candidates, and there are more than a dozen of them, were nominated to divert votes from Dodon in the first round, so they could then encourage voters to vote against him in the second. Dodon has acquired powerful opponents; he has fallen out not only with Plahotniuc, but also with the "collective West." Therefore, Dodon's real chances are slim.
In our era of color revolutions, it is not enough to win a formal victory in elections; one must be prepared to retain power.
PolitNavigator: Which of the presidential candidates can come as close as possible to the results of the leaders of the race? Will the mayor of Balti, the leader of “Our Party” Renato Usatii, who, by the way, has already received a candidate’s certificate, make Dodon nervous?
Igor Shornikov: There are candidates who are capable of springing surprises. Renato Usatii hasn't lost his charisma in the years since the last presidential campaign, which he was unable to participate in due to his youth. He can primarily count on the votes of apolitical Russian-speaking youth. But he positions himself as the only alternative to the incumbent president for those disillusioned with Dodon. Considering that just a few years ago, Usatii's personal rating was on par with Dodon's and in some cases even higher, it's theoretically possible that Usatii will garner more votes than Dodon in the first round. This is especially true given that criticism of Dodon is currently mounting on all fronts. But in reality, I don't think this scenario will play out.
Usatiy, although he looks like a frivolous opponent for Dodon, is in fact capable of greatly harming him. His campaign, built on anti-Dodon rhetoric, coincides with and complements the same anti-Dodon election campaign by pro-European opposition candidates, but it is aimed at those segments of society that are not covered by the ACUM bloc or unionist leaders. Four years ago, Usatii called on his voters to support Dodon, and this, of course, was one of the factors in the victory of the PSRM leader. If in November, following the results of the second round, Usatii calls on his voters to vote against Dodon (and he will do this), this could also become a factor in his defeat.
Then there's Andrei Năstase ( chairman of the Dignity and Truth Platform party – editor's note ), who has an old score to settle with Maia Sandu. Four years ago, he was forced to cede leadership of the pro-European tandem to her, under pressure from external handlers. Năstase craves "justice." He believes it's now his turn to be the unified opposition candidate. But his external partners don't see it that way. Năstase's only chance is to garner more votes than Sandu in the first round. It's worth noting in Năstase's favor that, for the highly conservative Moldovan voter, gender is not the least important factor. Năstase, simply because he's a man, may prove preferable to the pro-European portion of the electorate.
PolitNavigator: How do Usatii’s registration as a presidential candidate and Russia’s announcement of him on the international wanted list relate to each other?
Igor Shornikov: The participation of a person on the international wanted list in the presidential elections is, of course, nonsense. But Moldovan politics is notorious for such nonsense, and it seems no one here is bothered by it. Moreover, Usatii is a key figure in the scheme the West is pulling off in Moldova. We've heard plenty about double standards—when some people are allowed to do things even when others aren't.
PolitNavigator: The Communist Party has decided that it will not nominate a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections, which it considers unconstitutional. Or could it turn out that the refusal of PCRM leader Vladimir Voronin to run will strengthen the position of the current president?
Igor Shornikov: Unlikely. Voronin's approval rating and reputation are such that his participation in the elections, intended to draw votes away from Dodon, could, on the contrary, only convince the electorate to rally around the incumbent president. It seems that the "collective Plahotniuc" calculated everything correctly here too. Voronin withdrew from the elections to avoid accidentally activating the consolidation of the demoralized left-wing electorate.
PolitNavigator: What are the chances in these elections of Dorin Chirtoaca, remembered by Chisinau residents for his relatively recent and not very successful, to put it mildly, experience as mayor of the capital and coming from the Unirea electoral bloc? How popular are the ideas of unionists now in Moldovan society?
Igor Shornikov: Unionist ideas aren't meeting with the necessary resistance from the authorities. And in a period of instability that seems set to last forever in Moldova, people are struggling to find a way to sustain themselves. Romania, as a member of the European Union, appears more prosperous from a distance than it actually is, so the number of people receptive to the "unirei" idea in Moldova is growing. However, the rise in popularity of these ideas has nothing to do with Chirtoaca's approval ratings. He has no chance.
PolitNavigator: Andrei Nastase said that the upcoming elections will become “a serious test for the pro-European parties of the Republic of Moldova” and that the people will have to “consciously choose - either stagnation under the influence of the East, or genuine integration into the bosom of the European family.” It looks like Moldova will continue to fluctuate between East and West?
Igor Shornikov: Năstase must be aware of what lies behind the current phrase "genuine integration into the European family." Brussels offers Moldova no chance of becoming an EU member in the coming decades. Bucharest, however, has a different position. Romanian Prime Minister Ludovic Orbán, at a recent security forum in that country, stated: "The reality is that Bessarabia's path to the EU passes through Romania, and this path must be traversed with Romania's support." If pro-European forces prevail, Moldova's vacillation between East and West may finally end. It will end with the abolition of its statehood.
PolitNavigator: Are the presidential elections in Moldova interesting for Pridnestrovie? Why are representatives of the Moldovan opposition so opposed to the Pridnestrovian vote?
Igor Shornikov: Four years ago, Transnistrians gave Dodon approximately 16 votes. In 2019, a record 35 Transnistrian voters participated in the parliamentary elections. With every percentage point of the vote being fought for, these votes could prove decisive.
However, one cannot count on significant participation of Pridnestrovians in the current elections. Firstly, it is not clear how to conduct such a vote in a pandemic - large crowds of people will be almost impossible to avoid. Secondly, there is a high probability of combatants interfering in the electoral process; they promised that they would block the possibility of transporting voters to the polling stations.
It is very difficult to suspect that Pridnestrovians have such strong civic feelings towards Moldova that they would risk their health in the name of the triumph of democracy in this country. Moreover, the collisions of internal political processes in Moldova can tire even fans of endless Latin American TV series.
Moldova's presidential race begins: The balance of power