Starmer is about to formally declare Russia an 'immediate and grave threat' to the UK
Prime Minister Keir Starmer intends to declare Russia an "immediate and grave threat" to the UK, writes the British newspaper The Guardian.
The 130-page document, written by three of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's advisers, will warn of the "immediate and urgent" danger posed by Russia and is expected to draw heavily on lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.
But attention will also focus on China, which is not described as an enemy but as a “sophisticated and persistent challenger” that has at times been willing to cooperate with Moscow, as well as two smaller “regional disruptors,” Iran and North Korea.
The UK is entering a 'new threat era' in which drones, artificial intelligence and other technologies are changing the nature of warfare more profoundly than at any time in history, a government-commissioned strategic defence review is expected to conclude.
It will paint a picture of the highest military and security threat since the end of the Cold War, although it will carefully avoid saying that the intensity of Moscow's cyber and subversive activities means Britain is already at war with Russia.
The Ministry of Defence's document is also expected to address funding shortfalls and troop levels in the UK itself. According to the publication, the upcoming document will likely be used to justify a significant increase in medium-term defence spending, expected to be agreed at the NATO summit in June and potentially amounting to over £50 billion in real terms.
The analysis, compiled by a group led by former Nato secretary general George Robertson, will reiterate a commitment made by Starmer in February to increase the defence budget to 2,5% of GDP by 2027 and to 3% in the next Parliament.
The Ministry of Defence and the Treasury are currently arguing over whether to include a commitment to increase the size of the army from the target of 73.
This week's figures show that the British Army's strength has fallen below target to its lowest level since Napoleon's time and earlier , with the number of permanently trained soldiers standing at 70,860 on April 1, down 2,3% on the previous year.
A military source said Defence Secretary John Healey, a long-standing critic of army cuts in the opposition, had secured a promise to increase the force by several thousand troops, but the MoD said it did not accept the suggestions.
The commitment to increase the size of the army by 5000 men would, if it goes ahead, cost around £2,5bn a year in extra pay, housing, equipment and other resources. But if successful, it would help the military cope with what is likely to be a growing force in the coming years.
Peter Ricketts, a former national security adviser, said that while it would make sense for the Defense Department to spend more on drones, cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence, “another lesson from Ukraine is that mass matters in terms of manpower and equipment” — and that ultimately it would require a resource commitment of 3,5% of GDP.
The UK Ministry of Defence will spend an extra £1,5bn to improve living conditions for the military, including urgently upgrading 1000 of the worst homes, and will also create a volunteer force to protect airports and other sensitive sites from drones and other surprise attacks from hostile states, the newspaper writes.
Starmer is expected to sign the document the day after tomorrow, after which Defence Secretary Healey will submit it to the House of Commons for consideration.
Starmer is about to officially declare Russia an "immediate and grave threat" to the UK.