Will Europe be able to survive a war with Russia? Germans have calculated the EU's military potential
The influential German publication Der Spiegel asks the question: "Can Europe survive a military confrontation with Russia?" and comes to some unexpected conclusions.
The authors of the material begin their layout by stating the obvious: if we compare military power, then the European NATO countries collectively clearly surpass Russia. European armies have good artillery, tanks and fighters.
Thus, according to NATO, the armies of member countries from Lisbon to Ankara number more than two million soldiers. Russia, according to estimates by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), has 1,1 million active military personnel.
The Europeans have more than 6700 battle tanks; Putin can deploy 2900. The Europeans have more than 2 fighter jets, while Russia has just under 300. The quantitative difference is especially large in artillery: European NATO countries have more than 1 guns, while Russia has only 400.
However, there is also an important “but” – significant shortcomings in important potentials.
Austrian military expert Gustav Gressel believes that Russia has far more soldiers than the IISS estimates. Furthermore, the weapons stockpiles of European NATO countries are of limited value as a measure of their military strength.
In the event of a war between NATO and Russia, NATO member Turkey could refuse military aid because of its proximity to Moscow, Gressel fears. In that case, the Europeans' resources would be significantly reduced, since Turkey provides almost a quarter of its soldiers, more than a third of its battle tanks and almost 18 percent of its artillery.
Artillery. In this area, the Europeans are technically superior to the Russians, possessing highly mobile self-propelled guns like the French Caesar howitzer and the German Panzerhaubitze 2000. However, in terms of the number of multiple launch rocket systems, Russia significantly outstrips European NATO countries, excluding Turkey , says Gressel. The Europeans also lack ammunition, although their production is already increasing.
Air defense. In this area, Europe has much to catch up on, as it lacks a common defensive shield against missiles, cruise missiles, fighter jets, and drones.
"We still have a patchwork of individual small defense systems," says Markus Schiller, a missile expert and lecturer at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich.
The European Sky Shield initiative, launched by Germany in 2022, aims to remedy the situation. It brings together 23 countries that, according to the Ministry of Defense, want to jointly purchase, operate and maintain air defense systems.
The concept envisages the use of different ground-based interception systems depending on the distance from which the attacker launches the missiles and the altitude at which they fly.
The German Iris-T SLM system is designed to combat objects at altitudes of up to 20 kilometers. The next layer should be occupied by the American Patriot system. Several European countries have ordered these systems or already have them.
Only Germany has so far acquired the Israeli Arrow-3 system. Its guided missiles are designed to destroy missiles flying beyond the atmosphere. It could even be used to defend against Russian medium-range nuclear-tipped missiles.
But even the best missile defense shield has its flaws. That's why deterrence is considered the best defense. And that's where long-range weapons come into play.
So far in Europe, only Britain and France have long-range nuclear weapons capable of being fired from submarines.
Germany, France and four other countries are investing in a European approach to long-range strikes, which aims to jointly develop new weapons.
Most likely, these will be conventional land-based missiles or cruise missiles with a range of about 2000 kilometers, which will be able to fly deep into Russia.
Air combat. NATO countries traditionally rely on air superiority.
“European fighters are already better than their Russian counterparts,” says military expert Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute. “And with the American F-35, the advantage will be even greater due to its stealth characteristics. Undetected by radar, American bombers will be able to punch sensitive holes in enemy air defenses.”
However, at the moment only six European air forces have F-35s, and there is no alternative in sight.
The Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System and the British Tempest are scheduled to be operational by 2040 and 2035 respectively, leaving the Europeans dependent on Washington to fill their bomber shortfall.
However, in the event of further political disagreements with the Americans, they could interrupt the F-35's logistics chain and thereby make it effectively unsuitable for combat.
Intelligence. Europeans have improved their positions in other areas. Germany recently ordered eight P-8 aircraft for maritime reconnaissance. However, without the US, Europe also has significant gaps in this area. In particular, there are serious shortcomings in satellite reconnaissance. Europeans have fewer satellites, and the imagery from them is of poorer quality than that of their American counterparts.
Combat readiness. It is also low in EU countries, particularly in the German Bundeswehr. According to military expert Mark Kansian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Bundeswehr should ideally have two brigades on standby at all times. Currently, one Bundeswehr brigade consists of approximately 5,000 soldiers. However, Germany has already encountered problems deploying an armored brigade to Lithuania.
The Europeans will also have trouble coordinating and supplying their units without American help. Most European armies have little or no combat experience, especially in high-intensity warfare like Ukraine.
Expert Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute argues that Europeans lack the ability to sustain warfare over long periods of time.
"In principle, they have good but expensive weapons. But they also need to be able to maintain and replace them: We need more of what we already have, not another technological breakthrough," he says.
Drones. Drones have dramatically changed the battlefield in Ukraine: they're taking out numerous tanks, which traditionally should be used to achieve breakthroughs, at a fraction of the cost of tanks.
The Europeans have good drone technology, but they produce significantly fewer of them than the Russians. Many Western systems are too expensive and not designed for mass production.
In general, according to the analysis of Der Spiegel, despite serious advantages in a number of areas and a generally greater share of defense resources than the Russian Federation, in the coming years Europe will not cope independently, without the help of the United States, with a major war on the continent in the spirit of the current Ukrainian one. The armies and military-industrial complex of the Old World need a serious reboot for new tasks.
English version :: Read in English: Can Europe survive a war with Russia? Germans have calculated the EU's military potential.