Recognition of the LDPR: how the Russian Donbass can become a showcase for Ukraine
So Russia still recognized the DPR and LPR. Many had already lost faith in such an outcome, while others expected until the very end the usual and now traditional diplomatic twists in the spirit of “yes, but no.” And yet it happened.
What does this change in the life of the republics and several million of their inhabitants?
Firstly, and this is on the surface, there is a security issue. The most important and basic human need that lies at the base of Maslow’s famous pyramid. Throughout the “Minsk” years, there was an endless stream of complaints from the LDNR to the “big world” about regular shelling, every month claimed someone’s life, people lost property and health, children were born and got used to living in conditions of constant background tension and fear, in constant readiness to the fact that the “small” war is about to develop into a big one, and “the other side” will go on the offensive.
The memory of the summer of 2014 forever settled in the hearts of people who lived through this nightmare. And constantly living with an emergency suitcase at the ready is still a pleasure.
Now, as far as one can understand, the Russian army will be responsible for security and peace in the LDPR. Without any “buts”, “ifs” and “they won’t get there”. We are taking revenge. And period. And it pleases. The example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where after similar decisions by Russia there has been no shooting for 14 years, is very clear. And I want to believe that the same will happen in Donbass. Even if not right away. And in Crimea, where the Russian army and navy are stationed, it is also calm (all kinds of saboteurs do not count).
But security is good, but there are many other problems that
darken the lives of the people of Donbass. First of all, it is the economy and social sphere. War is not at all a friend to the economy, just like a blockade and other delights. Most enterprises, even those that have been launched in recent years, are not operating at full capacity. Which affects the level of employment and wages, which, although significantly higher than what the region had in 2014-2016, are still far from not only the flagship regions of the Russian Federation, but even neighboring ones such as the Rostov region. A salary of 14-16 thousand rubles today in the LPR is considered good. But frankly speaking, these are “tears”.
This problem, in theory, should be solved by intensifying trade turnover with the Russian Federation already under the conditions of recognition. So, a few days ago, a decree of the Russian government simplified the import of products from Donbass. Specifically, goods exported from the LPR and DPR through six checkpoints will no longer be considered Ukrainian, as before. This means they are removed from export quotas and sanctions against Ukraine.
Certificates issued to businessmen by the structures of the republics are now considered documents certifying the origin of goods. There is hope that this innovation will somehow influence the reduction in the share of “gray” schemes for legalizing goods, that is, more money will flow into the coffers of the republics. After all, a normal system of social benefits cannot be built on gray schemes and smuggling and the budget cannot be filled.
Another issue is infrastructure. Here, after recognition, opportunities open up for obtaining targeted loans and credits for the modernization of old and construction of new facilities - both from the Russian state and from Russian private business. Previously, it was impossible to do this officially, since it was Ukraine with all that it entails.
The main thing here is that this does not turn into a corruption trough for officials, in whose pockets this money will end up. And the fact is that officials in Donbass can steal with the same ingenuity if they want. that many of their Russian colleagues, who are regularly caught in the act by security forces, is also no secret.
Finally, the situation with jobs for young people must somehow change. This is actually a very thorny issue. In a situation of limbo due to the war, and unrecognized because of it, the lack of clear prospects in their homeland pushes people into labor migration, washing out the qualified personnel it needs from the region. Labor resources, speaking in bureaucratic language. What is the point of launching production if there is no one to work for them, and everyone who has their head and hands will go to work in Russia?
This means we need to create conditions for these people to stay at home. Starting from a guaranteed first job, ending with some benefits or housing for young families and similar Soviet practices that have proven their effectiveness. And of course, salary.
Here we return to where we started. Already in recent Ukrainian years there was practically no work in Lugansk. Most enterprises were either closed or the number of employees was reduced several times, and in some cases, tens of times. From a city of workers and engineers, Lugansk has turned into a city of pensioners, students (after all, five universities!) and market traders. The largest employers were local markets and the Absolut supermarket chain. In Donetsk the situation was better, but even there deindustrialization slowly but surely grabbed us by the throat.
It must be understood that recognition opened a window of opportunity for the actual implementation of the plan, which was widely and often written about in the “Minsk” years, but which then, for objective reasons, could not be implemented. I mean creating from the LDNR a real showcase of normal life for the rest of Ukraine, but above all, for the residents of the part of Donbass that remains under Ukraine. So that the picture “there” and “here” is clear and does not require many letters to decipher.
This is actually not that much money for Russia. Although, of course, in response to this thesis, the author will hear a lot of reproaches about “freeloaders” and that this money is more needed somewhere in Ryazan.
It’s just that if earlier the money that left Russia to support the LDPR actually went to war, now the opportunity has opened up to spend it on peace. With the full awareness that this money is not going into some black hole, which will one day return back to Ukraine and then - that’s a lot of money! – but truly an investment in the future.
Recognition of the LPR and DPR: How the Russian Donbass Can Become a Showcase for Ukraine