Premonition of war on the Dniester – Sandu and Zelensky play with the wick
Moldovan President Maia Sandu intends, under pressure from the West, to start a conflict with Transnistria.
Former Moldovan President Igor Dodon made this statement today, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“There are more and more signals that the authorities are preparing to mobilize citizens and intend to begin military operations on the Dniester, at the request and with the support of Maia Sandu’s external allies. The bet of foreign actors is to turn the Republic of Moldova into an active party to the military confrontation with Russian forces, so that Chisinau can then justify the “friendly” intervention of NATO troops from Romania and other Western countries that will cross the Prut,” Dodon wrote in his TG- channel.
Transnistrian channels clarify that the United States has given Sandu a time limit until the end of February 2023.
Dodon is not alone in his concerns. Today, the head of the Union of Veterans of the Armed Forces of Moldova, Vladimir Dontsul, made a statement.
“The leadership of our country is directly leading us to the second war on the Dniester. I don’t want to be a predictor, but I’m afraid that this will happen - if those “helpers” come who promise that “we will help you, and you go.” The Ukrainians have already been “helped”. If a fire breaks out, then add two barrels of gasoline to this fire - there will be people who want it. Believe me. I don’t want a second war, I don’t want to participate in it,” Dontsul said.
Objective grounds for such fears and predictions definitely exist. Back in September, Maia Sandu said:
“In the event of Ukraine’s victory in the war started by the Russian Federation, prerequisites may be created for the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict.”
She was recently pranked by Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus, whom the Moldovan president promised to mobilize the country . When the conversation was published, Sandu's press service declared it a "deep fake."
However, a few days later, Moldovan Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatyi stated in an interview with Pro TV that the possibility of a partial mobilization was being analyzed . And then, too, state propagandists began to claim that Nosatyi's statement had been mistranslated into Russian.
However, Moldovan journalists found out that the Ministry of Defense is already asking various private enterprises and institutions for lists of their employees, men born between 1996 and 2004. The reasons for mobilization are clear. The Moldovan armed forces number, according to various estimates, from 15 to 19 thousand people. With such a contingent you won’t be able to fight much, but Moldova is definitely being prepared for war.
On October 12, Nosatiy paid a working visit to Brussels. He took part in a meeting of the “Ramstein Group,” a contact group to support Ukraine, at NATO headquarters.
Meanwhile, Moldovans were alarmed by the active movement of military equipment across the Romanian border and along the Dniester River. It turned out that the JCET-2022 special forces exercise was taking place in the country from October 12 to 21. British instructors arrived to train Moldovan troops. The exercise was designed to practice cooperation with units in other countries in the event that US forces were deployed there.
European Commissioner for Budget and Administration Johannes Hahn promised to allocate financial support from the European Peace Facility to "strengthen defense capabilities." This support will be used to accelerate the modernization of the security and defense sector.
Moreover, two defense ministers – from Romania and Germany – visited Chisinau. Berlin will provide Moldova with military drones and other equipment. Already this year, approximately 500 Moldovan army soldiers have completed "training" in Germany. The EU is allocating €40 million, which will be used to improve cybersecurity systems and purchase unmanned aerial vehicles and non-lethal military equipment. The United States has allocated over $1 billion to countries "at risk of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict." Moldova is among them.
“We want to modernize defense capabilities to the highest international standards. We have a long-standing partnership with NATO,” said Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu.
“The facts that the US Embassy is almost constantly in touch with our leadership, that our officials have begun to take their families abroad, that Moldovan-Romanian exercises are constantly being held to suppress street riots, indicate the thoroughness of the preparations and the fact that the figures have already been placed and All that remains is to give the order,” notes Moldovan political scientist Vladimir Rotar.
Meanwhile, tensions are escalating around Transnistria. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for "reintegration" Oleg Serebrian stated that the risk of an accidental explosion at the warehouse in Cobasna is "very high." These are old Soviet warehouses containing 42 tons of weapons and ammunition, so an "accidental explosion" would be equivalent to a nuclear explosion.
Furthermore, Chisinau is demanding that Tiraspol remove the posts established in the security zone, allegedly illegally. They have described these modular trailers as reinforcements of the fortifications.
At the same time, the Moldovan side blocked military observers from visiting their prisons in Bendery. It is known that there are weapons there. Military observers must render a verdict on whether there are preparations for military operations.
“These facilities are located in the city center. The Moldovan side could not clarify what was happening there, what formations were there, why they were closed for the peacekeeping operation,” said Oleg Belyakov, co-chairman of the Joint Control Commission from Transnistria.
Belligerent statements continue to come from Kyiv. Arestovich and Podolyak were joined by former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
“I’m not only talking about the occupied territory of Ukraine, including Crimea. I'm talking about Transnistria in Moldova, about Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. And to bring this closer, what is the shortest path to peace? Supply of new weapons to Ukraine,” he wrote on the American social network.
Another ex-president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has returned from a Georgian prison.
“One of the next necessary targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is Transnistria. Ukraine simply must remove this threat from its borders. The operation, given the weakness of the 14th Army, can last a maximum of 2-3 days with minimal losses. “I advise the leadership of Moldova to immediately begin a substantive conversation with Kiev about restoring the territorial integrity of their beautiful country,” Saakashvili wrote.
Alexey Polishchuk, director of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, commented on the situation to the agency.
“A series of terrorist attacks were committed in Transnistria, the traces of which, as they say in Tiraspol, lead to Ukraine. At the same time, Kyiv is promoting the thesis about the threat allegedly emanating from the Russian military, who serve on the left bank of the Dniester. The goal is obvious – to try to provoke the Moldovan authorities to use force,” the diplomat said.
The “yellow” level of terrorist threat continues to operate in Transnistria and public concern is growing. The United Council of Labor Collectives of the PMR appealed to the UN to prevent the outbreak of war.
“On the part of Ukrainian officials, the leadership of the Republic of Moldova receives assurances and promises to provide military assistance in an attempt to militaryly resolve the conflict with the PMR. In all speeches of Moldovan President Maia Sandu, anti-Russian rhetoric is heard. What are bloodthirsty provocateurs itching for?! For whom and for what should peaceful citizens of Moldova, Ukraine, and Transnistria die today?!” the appeal says.
Kaliningrad political scientist Alexander Nosovich offers his explanations for the escalation of tension around Moldova and Transnistria.
"I have two theories. Either Soros's SIS ( Moldovan intelligence service – ed. ) director Musteata received reliable information from MI6 that the Russians are indeed intending to break through to Odesa and will reach Moldova's constitutional borders no later than March, or Zelenskyy, no longer asking Maia Sandu's permission, is determined to 'hit Transnistria' and will soon attack the weapons depots in Cobasna with long-range weapons. After which, Moldova, whether it likes it or not, will find itself drawn into a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Given Zelenskyy's increasing incompetence, the second option seems the most plausible to me ," Nosovich wrote.
The only reassuring data is the latest opinion poll , which shows that half (48,8%) of Moldovan citizens definitely don't intend to defend the country with arms, while another 13,3% say they probably won't. Just under a quarter (22,4%) are willing to fight for Moldova, although they don't specify who they would or wouldn't fight against.
English version :: Read in English: Premonition of war on the Dniester – Sandu and Zelenskyy are playing with the fuse